NJIT professor sees 59 percent chance of Rays win over Phillies in World Series

October 20, 2008

NJIT's Bruce Bukiet, a mathematician who has applied mathematical modeling techniques to elucidate the dynamics of scoring in baseball, has computed the probability of the Rays and Phillies winning the World Series now that the Rays have defeated the Boston Red Sox in the American League Championship Series. He recently released the names of those most deserving of Major League Baseball's prestigious 2008 Most Valuable Player (MVP) and Cy Young awards.

Bukiet, a popular NJIT math professor, dives annually into such terrain in part for his love of the game, but also for his love of teaching and math. "Baseball can be a terrific learning tool," said Bukiet. "It demonstrates how math is all around us."

With the World Series set to begin Wednesday night in Tampa Bay, the model gives the Rays a 59 percent chance of winning the series with most probable outcomes being a Rays championship in 6 (20 percent chance) or 7 (19 percent chance) games. "I'm sure my friends who are Phillies fans are not happy about these numbers," said Bukiet. Updates on the chances of each team winning the World Series based on the outcome of each game and changes in prospective starters are posted at: http://m.njit.edu/bukiet/baseball/playoffs08.htm

Bukiet's method uses each player's 2008 season statistics. He then applies a Markov process approach to modeling production of runs in baseball games. Bukiet first presented this mathematical model in 1997 in Operations Research. His method can be used for a number of purposes including predicting how many games a team should win in a season, the expected influence of trades and whether to wager on a game.

This is the eighth year that Bukiet has used his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games each day of the baseball season. His picks (posted on www.egrandslam.com) have led to positive results for six of the past eight years.
-end-
Bukiet http://www.njit.edu/publicinfo/newsroom/bukiet_bio.php is the recipient of two NJIT teaching awards and manages two National Science Foundation programs to improve high school math and science education and train more math and science educators. An associate professor of mathematics and associate dean, Bukiet focuses on the mathematical modeling of physical phenomena, teacher education and bringing research and computation into high school math and science environments. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University.

NJIT, New Jersey's science and technology university, enrolls more than 8,000 students in bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in 92 degree programs offered by six colleges: Newark College of Engineering, New Jersey School of Architecture, College of Science and Liberal Arts, School of Management, Albert Dorman Honors College and College of Computing Sciences. NJIT is renowned for expertise in architecture, applied mathematics, wireless communications and networking, solar physics, advanced engineered particulate materials, nanotechnology, neural engineering and eLearning. In 2006, Princeton Review named NJIT among the nation's top 25 campuses for technology and top 150 for best value. U.S. News & World Report's 2007 Annual Guide to America's Best Colleges ranked NJIT in the top tier of national research universities.

(ATTENTION EDITOR: Contact Bukiet through 6 p.m. today for interviews either via 973-710-5817, cell or bukiet@m.njit.edu.

New Jersey Institute of Technology

Related Mathematical Model Articles from Brightsurf:

A mathematical model facilitates inventory management in the food supply chain
A research study in the Diverfarming project integrates transport resources and inventory management in a model that seeks economic efficiency and to avoid shortages

Mathematical modelling to prevent fistulas
It is better to invest in measures that make it easier for women to visit a doctor during pregnancy than measures to repair birth injuries.

Predicting heat death in species more reliable with new mathematical model
An international research with the involvement of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), published in Science, has developed a new dynamic mathematical model which represents a change in paradigm in predicting the probability of heat-related mortality in small species.

Using a Gaussian mathematical model to define eruptive stages of young volcanic rocks
Precise dating of young samples since the Quaternary has been a difficult problem in the study of volcanoes and surface environment.

Moffitt mathematical model predicts patient outcomes to adaptive therapy
In an article published in Nature Communications, Moffitt Cancer Center researchers provide a closer look at a mathematical model and data showing that individual patient alterations in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) biomarker early in cancer treatment can predict outcomes to later treatment cycles of adaptive therapy.

New mathematical model can more effectively track epidemics
As COVID-19 spreads worldwide, leaders are relying on mathematical models to make public health and economic decisions.

Mathematical model could lead to better treatment for diabetes
MIT researchers have developed a mathematical model that can predict the behavior of glucose-responsive insulin in humans and in rodents.

New mathematical model reveals how major groups arise in evolution
Researchers at Uppsala University and the University of Leeds presents a new mathematical model of patterns of diversity in the fossil record, which offers a solution to Darwin's ''abominable mystery'' and strengthens our understanding of how modern groups originate.

Mathematical model reveals behavior of cellular enzymes
Mathematical modeling helps researchers to understand how enzymes in the body work to ensure normal functioning.

New mathematical model for amyloid formation
Scientists report on a mathematical model for the formation of amyloid fibrils.

Read More: Mathematical Model News and Mathematical Model Current Events
Brightsurf.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.