2005 Cy Young winners correctly predicted by mathematical model

November 10, 2005

November 10, 2005--The official results are in! A mathematical model for predicting the Cy Young award voting results yielded both of the 2005 winners, Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals (National League) and Bartolo Colon of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (American League). However, the model's inventors made a small human error they would later regret: Prior to the awards, they overrode the model's American League prediction by saying that New York Yankees reliever Mariano Rivera would win the title, rather than the model's choice of Bartolo Colon, who turned out to be the correct pick.

Rhode Island College mathematicians Rebecca Sparks and David Abrahamson developed a model which weights different pitcher statistics to predict the players who place first, second and third in Cy Young voting for each league (see November 3 story at http://www.insidescience.org/reports/2005/019.html for more details).

In addition to yielding the winners, the mathematical model correctly predicted that Dontrelle Willis of the Florida Marlins would come in second place in the National League voting. It also correctly predicted that Minnesota Twins pitcher Johann Santana would be the second-highest-ranked starter in the AL voting results. The model incorrectly predicted that Houston Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt would come in third place (he ended up in fourth place). However, prior to the award announcements, the mathematicians correctly speculated that a better-known player might overshadow the lesser-known Oswalt. And indeed, last year's Cy Young winner, Houston Astros pitcher Roger Clemens, one of the players that the Sparks and Abrahamson had mentioned, pulled ahead of his teammate Oswalt to claim third place.

The model, which is designed to analyze starting pitchers only, is currently not equipped to evaluate relief pitchers, who occasionally win the award. Thus the researchers overrode the model's American League results and had predicted that Yankees relief pitcher Rivera would win the AL pitching title. "We are a little mad at ourselves for not totally trusting the model," Sparks wrote the morning after the AL awards were announced.
The researchers presented their Cy Young model in the April 2005 issue of Math Horizons, published by the Mathematical Association of America. The article is now freely available online at http://www.maa.org/mathhorizons/pdfs/Apr05-MathModel2PredictAwardWinners.pdf

American Institute of Physics

Related Mathematical Model Articles from Brightsurf:

A mathematical model facilitates inventory management in the food supply chain
A research study in the Diverfarming project integrates transport resources and inventory management in a model that seeks economic efficiency and to avoid shortages

Mathematical modelling to prevent fistulas
It is better to invest in measures that make it easier for women to visit a doctor during pregnancy than measures to repair birth injuries.

Predicting heat death in species more reliable with new mathematical model
An international research with the involvement of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), published in Science, has developed a new dynamic mathematical model which represents a change in paradigm in predicting the probability of heat-related mortality in small species.

Using a Gaussian mathematical model to define eruptive stages of young volcanic rocks
Precise dating of young samples since the Quaternary has been a difficult problem in the study of volcanoes and surface environment.

Moffitt mathematical model predicts patient outcomes to adaptive therapy
In an article published in Nature Communications, Moffitt Cancer Center researchers provide a closer look at a mathematical model and data showing that individual patient alterations in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) biomarker early in cancer treatment can predict outcomes to later treatment cycles of adaptive therapy.

New mathematical model can more effectively track epidemics
As COVID-19 spreads worldwide, leaders are relying on mathematical models to make public health and economic decisions.

Mathematical model could lead to better treatment for diabetes
MIT researchers have developed a mathematical model that can predict the behavior of glucose-responsive insulin in humans and in rodents.

New mathematical model reveals how major groups arise in evolution
Researchers at Uppsala University and the University of Leeds presents a new mathematical model of patterns of diversity in the fossil record, which offers a solution to Darwin's ''abominable mystery'' and strengthens our understanding of how modern groups originate.

Mathematical model reveals behavior of cellular enzymes
Mathematical modeling helps researchers to understand how enzymes in the body work to ensure normal functioning.

New mathematical model for amyloid formation
Scientists report on a mathematical model for the formation of amyloid fibrils.

Read More: Mathematical Model News and Mathematical Model Current Events
Brightsurf.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.