Rapid population aging will raise critical challenges for Asian governments

December 08, 2010

BEIJING -- Responding to the challenges posed by a rapidly aging population will be one of the most difficult tasks for Asian governments in the first half of this century, says a report released today by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, U.S. National Academy of Sciences, and the Science Council of Japan.

The report, which discusses these challenges and identifies needed research to help policymakers better respond to them, was released at the opening of an international conference on aging in Asia hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.

While the percentage of elderly people in nearly every nation is growing, this aging trend is particularly stark in parts of Asia, the report says. Projections indicate that the portion of the population age 65 and older will more than triple in China, India, and Indonesia and more than double in Japan between 2000 and 2050, based on data from the United Nations. Moreover, this demographic shift is coinciding with dramatic economic and social changes in Asia, including changing family structures and large-scale migrations from rural to urban areas.

These trends raise critical questions about how nations can develop policies that best support health and economic well-being in large and growing populations at older ages. And the longer governments wait to respond, the more constrained their choices will be, the report says. For example, policies that depend on the accumulation of assets -- such as programs that mandate or encourage private saving for retirement -- would need to be put in place many years before they can provide benefits. Generally, gradual adjustments are much easier for countries, especially low-income ones, to make than sudden policy changes.

Governments in Asia still have time to determine the best ways to respond to the unfolding demographic transformation, the report says, but taking advantage of this window of opportunity will require new research to shed light on the status and needs of the aging population. Currently the research base on aging in this region is relatively underdeveloped.

The report identifies several key topics for research to inform public policy: Longitudinal studies, which gather data from the same group of respondents over time, can be especially effective in untangling causal relationships related to aging and can provide important information to policymakers, the report says. Surveys will be most useful if they provide policy-related information on a variety of topics -- such as basic demographic information, family relationships, employment and income, pensions, health status, and use of health care -- and if they are designed to allow comparisons across countries. The report also recommends that research data be made public in a timely fashion, so that new studies can replicate and build on previous research, maximizing the power of the scientific method.

Although each country's approach to social policy is unique and influenced by different historical and cultural factors, nations can learn much from one another, the report adds. In particular, countries in the early stages of population aging may especially benefit from the experience of those in later stages. Coordinating research activity can compound the returns from investments made by individual nations.
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The Beijing conference at which the report was released is intended to help researchers from many nations and disciplines share research results and explore possibilities for greater international scientific collaboration. More information about the conference and report can be found at http://national-academies.org/AgingInAsia.html. A second conference on the topic is planned for March 2011, to be held in New Delhi in collaboration with the Indian National Science Academy. The report was sponsored by the U.S. National Institute on Aging.

Copies of Preparing for the Challenges of Population Aging in Asia: Strengthening the Scientific Basis of Policy Development are available from the National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu. Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed above).

[ This news release and report are available at http://national-academies.org ]

Preparing for the Challenges of Population Aging in Asia: Strengthening the Scientific Basis of Policy Development

Authoring Committees

CHINESE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

Zhenzhen Zheng (chair), Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Beijing
Fang Cai, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Beijing
Yang Du, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Beijing
Guangzhou Wang, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Beijing

INDIAN NATIONAL SCIENCE ACADEMY

P.N. Tandon (chair), National Brain Research Centre, Haryana
Moneer Alam, Population Research Centre, Institute of Economic Growth, New Delhi
P. Arokiasamy, Department of Development Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai A.B. Dey, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi


INDONESIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Mayling Oey-Gardiner (chair), Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia, Jakarta
R. Sjamsuhidajat, School of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Jakarta

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE U.S. NATIONAL ACADEMIES

James P. Smith (chair), Labor and Population Division, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
P. Arokiasamy, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
David Bloom, School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Daniel Cotlear, Human Development Network, World Bank, Washington, DC
Hidehiko Ichimura, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, Japan
Daniel McFadden, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley
K. Srinath Reddy, Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
David Weir, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Yaohui Zhao, National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, China
Xuejin Zuo, Institute of Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China

SCIENCE COUNCIL OF JAPAN

Hiroko Akiyama, Institute of Gerontology, University of Tokyo

STAFF

Barney Cohen, Director, Committee on Population, National Research Council
Malay Majmundar, Senior Program Associate, Committee on Population, National Research Council

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

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