Nav: Home

Improved estimates of population extinction risk (Harding and McNamara)

December 10, 2003

An important application of theoretical ecology is in estimation of species extinction risk. Extinction models guide the selection of management regimes for endangered species. Two vital parameters in these models are the mean population growth rate and its variance. However, empirical data on population growth are rarely perfect, but are influenced by random sampling error (induced by e.g. weather conditions). It has been unclear how sampling error influences extinction estimates. In the latest issue of Ecology Letters, McNamara (U. Bristol) and Harding (U. Göteborg) show that sampling error has two opposite effects on estimates of population extinction risk. The errors lead to an exaggerated overall variance, but also introduce negative autocorrelations in the time series of population growth data. Interestingly, these two effects exactly counterbalance. Thus, a practical and efficient way to resolve the problem of dealing with sampling error is to routinely incorporate a measure of between year correlations in estimating population extinction risk.
-end-


Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Related Population Growth Articles:

Population only part of tornado casualty story
New research out of Florida State University shows that the strength of a tornado has a significantly larger effect than population on the number of casualties.
A new T-cell population for cancer immunotherapy
Scientists at the University of Basel in Switzerland have, for the first time, described a new T cell population that can recognize and kill tumor cells.
Population density pushes the 'slow life'
A new study by Arizona State University shows one psychological effect of population density is for those people living in urban areas to adopt a 'slow life strategy.' This strategy focuses more on planning for the long-term future and includes tactics like preferring long-term romantic relationships, having fewer children and investing more in education.
Clownfish adapt for population survival
Identification of candidate pathways in clownfish shows they can control responses to population alterations.
Sustainable Development Goals lead to lower population growth
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals would significantly slow population growth, according to a new study.
New approach may be key to improving US population health
The United States spends more on health care than any other country in the world, yet the life expectancy of its citizens is significantly shorter when compared to other high-income countries.
Human footprint surprisingly outpaced by population and economic growth
The global impact of human activities on the natural environment is extensive, but those impacts are expanding at a slower rate than the rate of economic and population growth.
Population boom preceded early farming
University of Utah anthropologists counted the number of carbon-dated artifacts at archaeological sites and concluded that a population boom and scarce food explain why people in eastern North America domesticated plants for the first time on the continent about 5,000 years ago.
Substantial growth in ordering of CTA exams in Medicare population
According to a new study by the Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute, the last 13 years have seen a substantial growth in the use of computed tomography angiography examinations in the Medicare population, particularly in the emergency department setting.
USU ecologists propose new method to probe population growth questions
To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, Utah State University ecologists and colleagues developed a set of transient life table response experiments for decomposing realized population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure.

Related Population Growth Reading:

Feeding the Ten Billion: Plants and Population Growth
by Lloyd T. Evans (Author)

Seven Billion and Counting: The Crisis in Global Population Growth
by Michael M. Andregg (Author)

The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000: Histories, Consequences, Issues, Nation by Nation
by William Stanton (Author)

Reversing Population Growth Swiftly and Painlessly: A Simple Two-Credit System to Regulate Birth Rates and Immigration
by Swift Run Press

Sparing Nature: The Conflict between Human Population Growth and Earth's Biodiversity
by Jeffrey K. McKee (Author)

Focus On: 70 Most Popular Environmental Controversies: Human Overpopulation, Fukushima Daiichi nuclear Disaster, Agent Orange, Palm Oil, Recycling, DDT, ... Population Growth, Chlorofluorocarbon, etc.
by Focus On

Theory of Natural Selection and Population Growth (Series in evolutionary biology)
by Lev R. Ginzburg (Author)

Mabiki: Infanticide and Population Growth in Eastern Japan, 1660-1950
by Fabian Drixler (Author)

Too Many: How Population Growth Leads Us Inexorably into the GREAT FAMINE, WORLD WAR, GOING DARK, and EXTINCTION

The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarin Change under Population Pressure
by Ester Boserup (Author), Virginia Deane Abernethy (Introduction), Nicholas Kaldor (Introduction)

Best Science Podcasts 2018

We have hand picked the best science podcasts for 2018. Sit back and enjoy new science podcasts updated daily from your favorite science news services and scientists.
Now Playing: TED Radio Hour

Circular
We're told if the economy is growing, and if we keep producing, that's a good thing. But at what cost? This hour, TED speakers explore circular systems that regenerate and re-use what we already have. Guests include economist Kate Raworth, environmental activist Tristram Stuart, landscape architect Kate Orff, entrepreneur David Katz, and graphic designer Jessi Arrington.
Now Playing: Science for the People

#504 The Art of Logic
How can mathematics help us have better arguments? This week we spend the hour with "The Art of Logic in an Illogical World" author, mathematician Eugenia Cheng, as she makes her case that the logic of mathematics can combine with emotional resonance to allow us to have better debates and arguments. Along the way we learn a lot about rigorous logic using arguments you're probably having every day, while also learning a lot about our own underlying beliefs and assumptions.