Current Probability News and Events

Current Probability News and Events, Probability News Articles.
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Reserve prices under scarcity conditions improve with a dynamic ORDC, new research finds
A new paper quantifies how better accounting for the temperature-dependent probability of large generator contingencies with time-varying dynamic ORDC construction improves reserve procurement. The paper, 'Dynamic Operating Reserve Procurement Improves Scarcity Pricing in PJM,' by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, was published in Energy Policy. (2021-02-16)

Predicting words' grammatical properties helps us read faster
Psycholinguists from the HSE Centre for Language and Brain found that when reading, people are not only able to predict specific words, but also words' grammatical properties, which helps them to read faster. Researchers have also discovered that predictability of words and grammatical features can be successfully modelled with the use of neural networks. The study was published in the journal PLOS ONE. (2021-02-16)

Where and when is economic decision-making represented in the brain?
Researchers at the University of Tsukuba report two areas of the monkey brain that represent expected value when making economic decisions. Analyses showed that neuronal activity in the VS and the cOFC provided stable representations of expected value, while other regions that are part of the reward network in the brain did not. State-space analysis revealed that the way expected value was represented over time differed in these two areas. (2021-02-10)

New tool helps clinicians assess patients who develop COVID-19 symptoms
The newly developed COvid Risk cALculator (CORAL) standardizes the assessment of emergency department and hospitalized patients who develop symptoms of COVID-19. The tool minimizes the chance that a patient with a false-negative test escapes detection and indicates when a patient's probability of having COVID-19 is low enough that isolation can be discontinued. (2021-02-10)

A novel approach to determine how carcinogenic bacteria find their targets
The gram-negative bacteria Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) colonize the stomachs of the majority of the world's population. Although most people may never experience major complications due to the pathogen, H. pylori infections increase the risk of certain types of gastric cancer, as well as other illnesses such as peptic ulcers and gastritis. (2021-02-10)

To find the right network model, compare all possible histories
Scientists rarely have the historical data they need to see exactly how nodes in a network became connected. But a new paper in Physical Review Letters offers hope for reconstructing the missing information, using a new method to evaluate the rules that generate network models. (2021-01-25)

K-State medical director contributes to research behind updated CDC quarantine guidance
Kyle Goerl, the medical director of Kansas State University's Lafene Health Center, is part of a collaborative team that has published recent research on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and quarantine periods. (2021-01-11)

Quantum wave in helium dimer filmed for the first time
For the first time, an international team of scientists from Goethe University and the University of Oklahoma has succeeded in filming quantum physical effects on a helium dimer as it breaks apart. The film shows the superposition of matter waves from two simultaneous events that occur with different probability: The survival and the disintegration of the helium dimer. This method might in future make it possible to track experimentally the formation and decay of quantum Efimov systems. (2020-12-23)

A weather station for epileptic seizure
The onset of epileptic seizures is unpredictable. Neuroscientists from the University of Geneva, the University Hospital of Bern and the University of California in San Francisco, have succeeded in developing a technique that can predict seizures between one and several days in advance. By recording neuronal activity over at least six months using a device implanted directly in the brain, it is possible to provide information about the probability of a future seizure. (2020-12-18)

When light and atoms share a common vibe
Scientists from EPFL, MIT, and CEA Saclay demonstrate a state of vibration that exists simultaneously at two different times. They evidence this quantum superposition by measuring the strongest class of quantum correlations between light beams that interact with the vibration. (2020-12-18)

The psychology of causality
Like a parent being pestered with endless questions from a young child, most people will now and again find themselves following an infinite chain of cause and effect when considering what led to some particular event. And while many factors can contribute to an event, we often single out only a few as its causes. So how do we decide? (2020-12-10)

Study details first artificial intelligence tool to help labs rule-out COVID-19
Hospital-based laboratories and doctors at the front line of the COVID-19 pandemic might soon add artificial intelligence to their testing toolkit. A recent study describes the performance of Biocogniv's new AI-COVID™ software, which showed high accuracy in predicting the probability of COVID-19 infection using routine blood tests, which can help hospitals reduce the number of patients referred for scarce PCR testing. (2020-12-10)

Keep taking the blood pressure medicine during the pandemic
An extensive study of more than one million Danes who have been tested for corona now confirms what several smaller studies have already indicated: That the risk of getting corona, being hospitalised or dying from the disease, is no higher for people taking medication such as ACE inhibitors and Angiotensin II receptor blockers. (2020-12-08)

Obesity increases the risk of early hip fracture in postmenopausal women
Obese women have an increased risk of hip fracture earlier than others, already well before the age of 70, a new study from the University of Eastern Finland shows. The study followed 12,715 women for a period of 25 years. (2020-12-01)

Forest fires, cars, power plants join list of risk factors for Alzheimer's disease
A new study led by researchers at UC San Francisco has found that among older Americans with cognitive impairment, the greater the air pollution in their neighborhood, the higher the likelihood of amyloid plaques - a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease. The study adds to a body of evidence indicating that pollution from cars, factories, power plants and forest fires joins established dementia risk factors like smoking and diabetes. (2020-11-30)

Scientists reveal regions of the brain where serotonin promotes patience
In a study on mice conducted by the Neural Computation Unit at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST), the authors, Dr. Katsuhiko Miyazaki and Dr. Kayoko Miyazaki, pinpoint specific areas of the brain that individually promote patience through the action of serotonin. (2020-11-27)

UCLA study of threatened desert tortoises offers new conservation strategy
A UCLA study publishing Nov. 27 in Science supports a new conservation strategy. Climate change increasingly makes relocating threatened species necessary, despite the frequently low success rate. The study found tortoises with lots of genetic variation were much more likely to survive after their relocation. The research supports this fast, inexpensive conservation tool, and upends the conventional wisdom suggesting that tortoises from areas moved from close by would fare best. (2020-11-26)

Neuroscientists measure fans' reactions to the big game
In a study published November 25 in the journal Neuron, researchers show how the feelings of surprise experienced while watching sports creates shifts in brain patterns. These shifts are important for neuroscientists to understand because they contribute to the formation of memories that are particularly strong. (2020-11-25)

Basketball on the brain: Neuroscientists use sports to study surprise
Princeton neuroscientists tracked the brains and pupils of self-described basketball fans as they watched March Madness games, to study how people process surprise -- an unexpected change of circumstances that shifts an anticipated outcome. They found that that shifts in the pattern of activity in high-level brain areas only happened at moments that contradicted the watchers' current beliefs about which team was more likely to win. (2020-11-25)

SFU researchers examine which approaches are most effective at reducing COVID-19 spread
Simon Fraser University professors Paul Tupper and Caroline Colijn have found that physical distancing is universally effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19, while social bubbles and masks are more situation-dependent. The researchers developed a model to test the effectiveness of measures such as physical distancing, masks or social bubbles when used in various settings. (2020-11-20)

Mystery solved: a 'New Kind of Electrons'
Why do certain materials emit electrons with a very specific energy? This has been a mystery for decades - scientists at TU Wien have found an answer. (2020-11-19)

New research explores the thermodynamics of off-equilibrium systems
Arguably, almost all truly intriguing systems are ones that are far away from equilibrium -- such as stars, planetary atmospheres, and even digital circuits. But, until now, systems far from thermal equilibrium couldn't be analyzed with conventional thermodynamics and statistical physics. In a paper published in the journal Physical Review Letters, physicist David Wolpert of the Santa Fe Institute presents a new hybrid formalism to overcome these limitations. (2020-11-11)

Covid-19 "super-spreading" events play outsized role in overall disease transmission
MIT researchers find Covid-19 super-spreading events, in which one person infects more than six other people, are much more frequent than anticipated, and that they have an outsized contribution to coronavirus transmission. (2020-11-02)

Boo! How do mexican cavefish escape predators?
When startled, do all fish respond the same way? A few fish, like Mexican cavefish, have evolved in unique environments without any predators. To see how this lack of predation impacts escape responses that are highly stereotyped across fish species, scientists explored this tiny fish to determine if there are evolved differences in them. Findings reveal that the dramatic ecological differences between cave and river environments contribute to differences in escape behavior in blind cavefish and river-dwelling surface cavefish. (2020-10-29)

How people would choose who gets scarce COVID-19 treatment
As COVID-19 cases begin climbing again in the United States, the possibility arises of a grim moral dilemma: Which patients should be prioritized if medical resources are scarce? A study of more than 5,000 people in 11 countries found that people worldwide gave two characteristics the most weight when they made their decision: age and probability of survival. (2020-10-29)

Using a volcano's eruption 'memory' to forecast dangerous follow-on explosions
Stromboli, the 'lighthouse of the Mediterranean', is known for its low-energy but persistent explosive eruptions, behaviour that is known scientifically as Strombolian activity. Occasionally, however, more intense and sudden explosions occur, most recently in July and August last year (2019). These are known as 'Strombolian paroxysms'. During such events several of Stromboli's craters are active simultaneously and much greater volumes of pyroclastic materials are erupted than is usual for the volcano. (2020-10-28)

Researchers find direction decided by rate of coin flip in quantum world
Flip a coin. Heads? Take a step to the left. Tails? Take a step to the right. In the quantum world? Go in both directions at once, like a wave spreading out. Called the walker analogy, this random process can be applied in both classical and quantum algorithms used in state-of-the-art technologies such as artificial intelligence and data search processes. However, the randomness also makes the walk difficult to control, making it more difficult to precisely design systems. (2020-10-28)

The new heavy isotope mendelevium-244 and a puzzling short-lived fission activity
A team of scientists from GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung Darmstadt, University Mainz (JGU), Helmholtz Institute Mainz (HIM) and the University of Jyvaeskylae, Finland, has provided new insights into the fission processes in exotic nuclei and for this, has produced the hitherto unknown nucleus mendelevium-244. The experiments were part of ''FAIR Phase 0'', the first stage of the FAIR experimental program. The results have now been published in the journal ''Physical Review Letters''. (2020-10-21)

Ban on accommodation meets with mixed acceptance among the population
The majority of the population considers the measures introduced by the Federal Government and the Länder to stem the spread of the coronavirus to be appropriate. Only the recently introduced ban on accommodating people from risk areas within Germany is met with much less acceptance: Only 45% regard the regulation as appropriate. This is the result of the current issue of the BfR-Corona-Monitor, a regular survey by the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR). (2020-10-20)

Are climate scientists being too cautious when linking extreme weather to climate change?
Climate science has focused on avoiding false alarms when linking extreme events to climate change. But it could learn from how weather forecasters warn the public of hazardous events to include a second key metric: the probability of detection. (2020-10-16)

What was responsible for the hottest spring in eastern China in 2018?
Quantitative estimates of the probability ratio show that anthropogenic forcing may have increased the chance of this event by ten-fold, while the anomalous circulation increased it by approximately two-fold. (2020-10-15)

Standalone D-dimer test strategy may simplify diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis
New research suggests that it may be possible to simplify the diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) without compromising accuracy. Contrary to the standard practice of administering several tests to diagnose DVT, using only a D-dimer blood test may help health care providers identify patients who require additional screening, according to a new study in Blood Advances. (2020-10-15)

Warm central equatorial pacific sea surface temperatures and anthropogenic warming boosted the 2019 severe drought in East China
A persistent severe drought occurred over East China along the Yangtze River in 2019 that lasted from August to October and caused large-scale negative impacts on lake water shortages and local agriculture. Results show that the central equatorial Pacific ENSO and anthropogenic warming were likely responsible for this drought event. (2020-10-14)

Research identifies sperm biomarker associated with couples' pregnancy probability
Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst have identified a single-measure biomarker in sperm mitochondrial DNA that may predict male reproductive health and pregnancy success. (2020-10-06)

Pesticides and food scarcity dramatically reduce wild bee population
The loss of flowering plants and the widespread use of pesticides could be a double punch to wild bee populations. In a new study, researchers at the University of California, Davis, found that the combined threats reduced blue orchard bee reproduction by 57 percent and resulted in fewer female offspring. (2020-10-06)

Simpler models may be better for determining some climate risk
Typically, computer models of climate become more and more complex as researchers strive to capture more details of our Earth's system, but according to a team of Penn State researchers, to assess risks, less complex models, with their ability to better sample uncertainties, may be a better choice. (2020-09-24)

New insights into how the drug pomalidomide fights cancer
Scientists from the Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo Medical University, and Saitama Medical University have published findings that offer insights into how the drug pomalidomide benefits some patients with a cancer called multiple myeloma. Clinicians use pomalidomide to treat cases of multiple myeloma resistant to the more established drug lenalidomide, and the research team found that pomalidomide works by targeting a protein called ARID2. These findings may lead to new treatments for lenalidomide-resistant multiple myeloma. (2020-09-21)

Mathematical modelling to prevent fistulas
It is better to invest in measures that make it easier for women to visit a doctor during pregnancy than measures to repair birth injuries. This is the conclusion from two mathematicians at LiU, using Uganda as an example. (2020-09-17)

COVID-19 could cause declines in life expectancy
A new analysis of period life expectancy around the world shows that the COVID-19 pandemic could cause a short-term decline in life expectancy in many regions of the world. (2020-09-17)

Peritonsillar abscess risk following respiratory infection is low with/without antibiotics
While widespread unnecessary use of antibiotics can diminish their effectiveness, reducing antibiotic prescribing may increase the risk of serious bacterial infections. This study quantifies the benefits of prescribing antibiotics for respiratory tract infections in terms of reduction in risk of peritonsillar abscess. (2020-09-15)

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