Macroeconomics
Articles tagged with Macroeconomics
Nature loss brings catastrophic risks – new report
A new report highlights the catastrophic risks of nature loss on food systems, economies and societies. Chronic pressures like soil degradation and water scarcity are already reducing crop yields and increasing food prices.
AI measures business complexity
A new AI model helps measure business complexity by breaking it down into 29 categories, including debt, equity, and financial structures. The tool can identify areas of complexity that require closer analysis for investors and provide insights for standard setters and regulators to simplify reporting standards.
U of A research finds improved weather forecasts could reduce heat deaths as climate warms
Researchers found that more accurate weather forecasts can significantly reduce heat-related deaths. The study suggests that technological advancements in forecasting can offset projected increases in heat-related fatalities due to climate change. In fact, the economic value of saving lives through improved forecasting is substantial a...
HKU hosts Hong Kong Climate Week 2026 opens with focus on “from mitigation to adaptation”
Hong Kong Climate Week 2026 aims to harness the city's strengths as an international financial centre and global connectivity hub. The event focuses on bridging global consensus and local implementation, highlighting the need for adaptation and innovation in addressing climate change.
Racial disparities in food insecurity for high- and low-income households
A cross-sectional study documents persistent racial disparities in food insecurity over 23 years, with smaller disparities among SNAP-participating households. The study highlights the need for targeted policies to address food insecurity and its intersectional effects.
Zara, Balay, and Idealista are the most innovative Spanish companies
The 4th edition of the Spanish Innovation Index reveals Ikea as leader in commercial innovation, Toyota and Apple as top innovators in social and digital sectors. Zara, Balay, and Idealista take the lead in their respective categories, showcasing sustained improvement in consumer perception of innovation.
Industrial research labs were invented in Europe but made the U.S. a tech superpower
A new study reveals that US industrial research labs played a crucial role in the country's rise as a technological superpower in the 1920s. The labs, which emerged during World War I, shifted from craftsmanship-based to science-based innovation, enabling teamwork and novel technology combinations.
'Swiftynomics' explores how women power, redefine economy
The book sheds light on the often-ignored contributions of women in economics, highlighting their role as economic agents throughout history. Heggeness shares robust data and anecdotes about women who have thrived economically, from Taylor Swift to unsung heroes like Francis Perkins.
Export concentration leaves Canada's canola sector vulnerable, research finds amid trade talks
New research from The Simpson Centre reveals Canada's canola sector faces structural vulnerabilities due to reliance on China and the US for exports. Limited capacity to reallocate shipments to alternative destinations creates distinct risks across different segments of the canola value chain.
History offers warning on dollar and deficits
A new study warns that the U.S. government's fiscal capacity depends on the dominance of the U.S. dollar, and potential losses for bondholders could be significant if another currency replaces it. Historically, countries with a strong currency have experienced economic downturns when their dominance wanes.
Danish chemist's invention could make counterfeiting a thing of the past
A new digital and legally binding fingerprint developed at the University of Copenhagen makes products impossible to counterfeit. Royal Copenhagen is among the first brands in the world to use this solution, resulting in immediate transparency across their distribution chain.
A new Japanese study investigates how tariff policies influence long-run economic growth
A new Japanese study uses a two-country model to investigate the impact of tariff policies on economic growth outcomes across countries. The researchers found that similar trade policies can lead to very different growth outcomes across countries, depending on a country's existing industrial structure.
Crypto hacks: Price drops often outweigh direct losses
A new study by the Complexity Science Hub reveals that crypto hacks can have a significant impact on market prices, with investors bearing the brunt of the losses. The study found that in 12 cases, affected tokens experienced subsequent price crashes, resulting in $1.3 billion indirect losses.
Study: Arrival of boll weevils in U.S. South in early 20th century brought long-term benefits for Black sons born after the agricultural shock
A new study found that the arrival of boll weevils in the US South in the early 20th century led to improved economic outcomes for Black sons born after the agricultural shock. The researchers examined changes in earnings, occupations, and residences for Black males before and after the boll weevil's appearance.
IU Kelley Futurecast: AI and energy infrastructure may buoy US economy in 2026
The US economy is expected to grow at 1.8% in 2026, with AI and energy infrastructure investments playing a key role. Despite this, job creation will not be strong enough to keep unemployment rates from rising to 4.8%, with the nation's economy facing uncertainty around trade policy.
Households’ hunt for better savings rates can deepen recessions, finds new study
When economies falter, households become more vigilant in searching for high-interest savings accounts, which can exacerbate recessions. This collective behavior amplifies economic fluctuations by 14%, pulling more money out of the economy when it's already struggling.
New Chair at ESMT Berlin: Henry Sauermann appointed TEAM GLOBAL Chair for Disruptive Innovation
ESMT Berlin has appointed Henry Sauermann as its new TEAM GLOBAL Chair for Disruptive Innovation, with support from technology holding TEAM GLOBAL. The chair will focus on translating fundamental research into teaching and practical support for innovators, aiming to elevate civilization to the next level.
How nations balanced health and economy in the COVID-19 pandemic: A global review
Researchers analyzed multiple countries' performance in achieving infection control and economic recovery, highlighting the impact of risk attitudes, patience, and trust on policy decisions. Countries with high levels of trust and patience managed to limit deaths and resuming production, while those with low trust and higher risk toler...
Africa needs more large firms, not more entrepreneurs, for economic growth
Researchers argue that boosting entrepreneurship is counterproductive to Africa's economic development due to a lack of large firms. The study suggests that focusing on building large firms and adopting strategies from East Asia's successful growth models could be more effective.
Systemic risks in the leveraged US loan market may herald new financial crisis – study
Researchers at University of Bath warn that underpriced leverage risk could trigger a new banking or credit crisis. Default rates on US leveraged loans are at their highest level in four years, with many borrowers resorting to distressed exchanges.
Strategic choices behind accounting standards unveiled in new study
A new study by Dr. Heylel-li Biton explores why foreign firms choose between IFRS and U.S. GAAP, finding that flexibility and compliance costs are key considerations. The research sheds light on the motivations behind financial disclosure decisions and offers guidance for regulators and investors.
Study finds that foreign multinational firms engage in limited tax-motivated income shifting out of the United States
A new study by Carnegie Mellon University finds that foreign multinational firms shift a modest amount of income out of the US for tax reasons. This income shifting supports a modest amount of employment and investment in the US, with results informing the potential effects of upcoming tax bills.
Study reveals how fatal school shootings disrupt local economies
A new study reveals that fatal school shootings have far-reaching consequences, altering daily life and disrupting economies in affected communities for months. Anxiety about public safety drives a measurable decline in consumer activity, particularly in grocery stores and restaurants.
Top economist Michael Weber nominated to join ESMT Berlin with Humboldt professorship
Renowned economist Michael Weber is nominated to join ESMT Berlin with a €5 million Humboldt Professorship, establishing the first business school in Germany to receive this distinction. The appointment aims to strengthen research in economics and policy at ESMT, exploring how households' expectations shape real-world decisions.
“BroadBand China” policy raises corporate borrowing costs
The study analyzed the causal impact of digital infrastructure on debt costs using China's 'BroadBand China' policy. Key findings show that digital infrastructure increases corporate debt costs, highlighting its dual significance for businesses and policymakers.
10 things research tells us about the global economic elite
A unique database of 3,500 global economic elite individuals from 16 countries provides insights into their demographics, education, and influence on economies. The World Elite Database sheds light on the power dynamics of the world's wealthiest individuals and those with regulatory power.
Deregulation of banks in America has fuelled corporate deception
A new study from the University of Surrey reveals that deregulated banks have led to a significant shift in corporate earnings management strategies, with companies opting for riskier real earnings management (REM) over accrual-based earnings management (AEM). This shift poses long-term risks to sustainability and innovation.
Women’s earnings fall 10% four years after menopause diagnosis
A new UCL study found that women experience a significant 4.3% reduction in earnings on average four years after a menopause diagnosis, rising to 10% by the fourth year. Women without a university degree are disproportionately affected, with graduate women facing no earnings penalty.
UTA joins global network to fuel entrepreneurs
The University of Texas at Arlington hosts weekly 1 Million Cups meetings, bringing together students, faculty, and local entrepreneurs to share ideas, network, and support startups. The program is part of the global 1MC network, which aims to facilitate community engagement and innovation.
India could see more than 62.4 million cases of tuberculosis in the two decades to 2040, with scaling-up of existing treatment regimens potentially generating at least US$28 billion in GDP gains
A new study estimates that India will see over 62.4 million cases of tuberculosis in the next two decades, posing a significant burden on the country's health and economy. Scaling up existing treatment regimens could generate at least $28 billion in GDP gains, highlighting the need for increased investment in TB control measures.
In China, property rights take wrong turn
A new study by Kishore Gawande finds that China's nationwide protection of private property rights in 2007 turbocharged its business climate. However, the country is now reversing course, with potential investors pulling back due to weakening property rights. This could lead to lower economic output and tax revenues for local governments.
Association between neighborhood deprivation and DNA methylation in an autopsy cohort
Researchers found a significant association between neighborhood deprivation and DNA methylation in brain tissue, which may be linked to immune response. The study identified one CpG site (cg26514961, PLXNC1 gene) significantly associated with neighborhood deprivation after controlling for covariates.
nTIDE March 2024 Jobs Report: Despite recent declines, people with disabilities remain engaged in the labor market
The employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities decreased slightly over the last four months, but labor force participation is leveling off. People with disabilities are still engaged in the labor force at a similar rate to last month.
Landmark advances in employment reframe the outlook for people with disabilities in post-pandemic era
Recent research highlights unprecedented upward trend in employment for people with disabilities, supported by favorable labor market and employer attitudes. Continued research and policy development are needed to extend this trend and foster a more inclusive economy.
Proposed reporting system could help avert bank runs
A proposed reporting system could help prevent future bank crises by providing regulators with detailed disclosure of both good and bad news. The system would shield less risky banks from runs while spotlighting the riskiest ones, protecting them from panic-driven withdrawals.
UK automotive industry vulnerability revealed – new Aston University research
The UK is heavily exposed to the electric vehicle (EV) revolution due to its critical dependency on battery imports, with imports exceeding exports by 10.5 times. The Aston University report outlines a four-point plan to fortify the UK's presence in the global EV market.
Study reveals the real tax rate paid by multinational corporations in 47 countries
A new study published in PLOS ONE found that the effective tax rate paid by multinational corporations varies greatly across countries, with some paying as little as 1% of gross income and others up to 67%. This disparity highlights the need for better data on tax rates to inform policy decisions.
nTIDE October 2023 Jobs Report: People with disabilities maintain job gains as economy cools
Despite cooling economic growth, people with disabilities continue to make strides in the labor market, maintaining their record-high employment-to-population ratios. The employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities remained stable at 37.2%, while that of those without disabilities also held steady at 75.2%.
nTIDE August 2023 Jobs Report: Record-breaking employment trend continues for people with disabilities
The employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities jumped to a new all-time high, reaching 37.9%, while labor force participation rates also increased, with 41.2% of working-age individuals participating in the workforce. This trend contrasts sharply with people without disabilities, whose ratios decreased slightly.
nTIDE June 2023 Jobs Report: Employment hovers around all-time highs for people with disabilities
The June 2023 nTIDE report shows employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities increasing to 37.0%, while labor force participation rate decreases slightly to 39.7%. Employment and labor force participation of people with disabilities may be negatively affected by Federal Reserve efforts.
Ukraine refugees could boost Europe’s GDP
New research suggests Ukrainian refugees can improve long-term GDP in European countries investing in capital improvements. Low-skill workers and owners of capital benefit in the short term, while high-skill workers face competition for jobs.
Illinois Tech researchers unveil key predictors of bitcoin returns
Illinois Tech researchers found that blockchain technology, investor sentiment, and economic stress are key predictors of bitcoin returns. Bitcoin's detachment from economic fundamentals makes it a poor safe-haven asset.
A recent research on the effects of central bank balance sheet policies
Central bank balance sheet policies are effective if investors behave according to a plausible alternative behavioral assumption to rational expectations. Professors Iovino and Sergeyev's new paper finds that level-k thinking breaks away with the demanding assumption of rational expectations, allowing agents to have varying degrees of ...
Executives ignore SEC legal requirements to warn investors about inflation risk, new research finds
New research finds that most corporations that face significant inflation risk have failed to disclose it, causing $0.9 trillion to $2.8 trillion in shareholder damages. Companies with high exposure to inflation risk have seen their share prices drop following inflation shocks.
nTIDE March 2023 jobs report: people with disabilities maintain record labor force participation rate, outperforming people without disabilities
The labor force participation rate for people with disabilities increased to a record 40.2% in March 2023, surpassing the rate for those without disabilities (77.6%). This growth reflects an ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and may be driven by factors such as increased job opportunities and family needs.
Predicting a recession
Researchers developed a new model to predict U.S. recessions and economic slowdowns based on financial statement manipulation. The study found that high levels of potential manipulation in financial statements can improve recession prediction 5 to 8 quarters away.
nTIDE December 2022 Jobs Report: Hot job market continues for people with disabilities despite efforts to cool the economy
The employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities increased from 36.5% in November to 37.0% in December, up 1.4%, while it remained unchanged at 74.4% for those without disabilities. This surge continues the gains of the last four months and highlights the ongoing strength of people with disabilities in the job market.
nTIDE November 2022 Jobs Report: People with disabilities continue to outperform people without disabilities in labor market
The employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities increased from 35.5% to 36.5% in November, up 2.8%, while it decreased slightly for those without disabilities. The labor force participation rate also rose for people with disabilities, indicating more are succeeding in finding jobs.
nTIDE October 2022 COVID Update: Little change in unemployment for people with and without disabilities
The National Trends in Disability Employment (nTIDE) October 2022 COVID Update reports little change in unemployment rates for people with and without disabilities. The overall jobs picture remains steady, but slight increases in furloughs are seen, particularly in the tech sector.
Kessler Foundation announces findings of 2022 National Employment & Disability Survey on effects of COVID-19 pandemic on employer practices related to people with disabilities
The survey found positive impacts on accommodation processes, remote work, flexible schedules, and job sharing for people with disabilities. Many supervisors reported increased commitment to supporting employees with disabilities.
nTIDE September 2022 Jobs Report: People with disabilities continue to enter labor force, foregoing Great Resignation
Employment numbers remained positive for people with disabilities, increasing their employment-to-population ratio and labor force participation rate. The trend suggests an inclusive workforce, but also highlights the need to boost household income.
nTIDE August 2022 COVID Update: Unemployment stable at pre-pandemic levels for people with disabilities
August COVID Update data show little change in unemployment numbers for people with and without disabilities on temporary layoff or looking for work. Challenges are on the horizon due to inflation concerns, which may lead to a tightening of the labor market and rising unemployment.
Research shows that it's new skills that lead to higher salaries
A study by Jerome Adda (Bocconi University) finds that new skills are the main contributor to higher salaries. Routine manual skills increase productivity and earnings in early career stages, while structured training and cognitive abstract skills have long-term effects. Trained workers earn higher wages and are less unemployed.
nTIDE April 2022 Jobs Report: Economic recovery for people with disabilities holds strong
The post-pandemic economic recovery of people with disabilities remained strong in April, with the employment-to-population ratio increasing to 34.0 percent and labor force participation rate also on the rise. The labor market continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with sustained good news since 2018.
nTIDE March 2022 Jobs Report: Job numbers exceed historic highs for six months for people with disabilities
The March 2022 nTIDE Jobs Report shows employment-to-population ratios for working-age people with disabilities increasing from 33.1% in February to 34.1% in March, a historic high. Labor force participation rates also increased, with workers with disabilities remaining engaged in the labor market throughout the pandemic.
Research: Partnership between humanitarian organizations and governments is essential for providing cash assistance to refugees
Research from Indiana University reveals that cash assistance is a double-edged sword, harming both refugees and local residents if not implemented correctly. Humanitarian organizations can extend cash assistance to host regions with market power by partnering with local governments.
Understanding modern infectious diseases and their impacts
A new study surveyed recent theoretical and empirical insights into economic and policy implications of modern infectious diseases, including COVID-19. The survey reveals distinct channels of disease impacts, highlighting the importance of prevention and pandemic preparedness through investments in healthcare systems.
Cambridge University researchers to tackle major threats to ‘UK’s vegetable garden’ and beloved rural idylls
Cambridge University researchers are tackling major environmental challenges in the UK's 'vegetable garden', the Fens, through a £10 million project. The team is working with farmers, landowners, and conservation groups to develop whole system solutions for climate change, extinction, and pollution threats.
Precious metal commodities can enhance investment portfolio performance, say Pusan National University researchers
A study published in Applied Economics analyzed the relationship between precious metal commodities and equity markets, revealing that gold and aluminum are the most desirable metals for investment. The research also found that copper and zinc have the largest spillovers on global equity indices.