The existence of humans on Malta, a tiny Mediterranean island, in the Mesolithic period is puzzling. Archaeological evidence indicates foragers occupied the Maltese islands between 8,500 and 7,500 years ago, and it is hypothesized that they arrived by a sea crossing. How did they survive over such an extended timeframe, given the limited resources available on this small island? James Blinkhorn and colleagues model the demographic and subsistence potential of Malta and Sicily during the terminal Pleistocene to Holocene. The authors considered sea levels and fluctuations in the productivity of the vegetation to generate estimates of forager densities from comparisons to recent ethnographic datasets. Malta and Sicily became separate islands by about 14,200 years ago, and both shrank in area over time, with Malta eventually reaching its current size of 252 km2. The minimum sea crossing distance between the islands reached 80 km within a millennium of their separation. Predicted maximum population sizes for Malta following disconnection from Sicily start at 419 individuals and drop to 170 individuals by 9,000 years ago—not long before the first evidence of human occupation. As this is well below the minimum population size for long-term viability, the authors conclude that the longevity of forager inhabitation on Malta must have relied upon repeated, long-distance sea crossings. Malta may have been a seasonal destination, or occupied for longer periods. According to the authors, the prospect of seafaring Mesolithic hunter-gatherers has implications for the demographic and cultural world of the Mediterranean before farming, as well as the origins of European hunter-gatherer ancestry in North Africa.
PNAS Nexus
Life on the edge: Mesolithic population size and viability on Malta
28-Jul-2026