As populations grow and economies develop, the world will need more roads, railways, and other mobility infrastructure, especially in rapidly urbanizing regions. The challenge is to provide that infrastructure while minimizing resource use and carbon emissions – a goal new research suggests is well within reach.
A new study published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology finds the world’s mobility infrastructure is set to expand dramatically by 2060, especially in the Global South, driving demand for concrete, steel, and asphalt and locking in significant carbon emissions. A research team from BOKU University and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) shows that shaping future mobility demand, optimizing what types of infrastructure we build, how much of it, and which production technologies we use can cut embodied emissions by up to 63%, while still meeting infrastructure needs. The study combines BOKU's high-resolution global infrastructure mapping with IIASA's MESSAGEix integrated assessment framework to evaluate future material demand and emissions.
Today’s global mobility infrastructure is dominated by roads and contains about 350 billion tons of materials, with large inequalities between affluent, low-population-density regions and densely populated, lower-income regions. Without changes in policy and planning, total material stocks of global mobility infrastructure could double by 2060. As countries work to ensure a decent minimum level of mobility access for their populations, global mobility networks could even triple in size. This growth would bring major annual material requirements and added pressures on both land and ecosystems.
The most effective way to cut emissions is slowing the growth of mobility demand, for example through denser and mixed-use urban forms with short distances to necessary services, as well as substantially improved public transport options. Further reductions can be achieved through cleaner material production, increased recycling, and the decarbonization of industrial energy supply. Combined, these measures can cut emissions by more than 60%.
André Baumgart, PhD student at the Institute of Social Ecology, summarizes the findings: “Compact, transit-oriented, and walking- and cycling-friendly cities can deliver access to mobility with far less material and carbon than car-centric sprawl. Choices made now in rapidly urbanizing regions will lock in mobility patterns for decades due to the long service lives of infrastructure.”
“Meeting the world's growing mobility needs and achieving climate goals can appear to be competing objectives, but integrated planning can help reconcile them,” adds coauthor Volker Krey who leads the Integrated Assessment and Climate Change Research Group at IIASA. “Our analysis shows that combining demand-side measures such as compact urban development and reduced unnecessary travel with cleaner industrial production and greater material circularity offers the greatest potential to reduce emissions while ensuring adequate mobility infrastructure for everyone.”
The authors emphasize the need for slowing the growth of mobility demand, followed by prioritizing high-capacity public and active transport where it displaces car-based travel, protecting and connecting dense urban cores, and avoiding sprawl-inducing road expansion. They conclude that the fastest and fairest route is to prioritize more efficient urban forms, cut unnecessary mobility demand, and deploy ambitious decarbonization and circular economy measures, focusing not only on how much infrastructure is built, but also on what is built, where it is built, and how the required materials are produced.
The foundational research and analysis were developed by André Baumgart during his participation in IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) in collaboration with IIASA researchers, Gamze Ünlü, Florian Maczek, Aneeque Javaid, and Volker Krey.
Reference
Baumgart, A., Ünlü, G., Grammer, B., Javaid, A., Maczek, F., Krausmann, F., Krey, V., and Wiedenhofer, D. (2026). Material and carbon implications of future mobility infrastructure expansion around the world. Journal of Industrial Ecology DOI: 10.1007/s44498-026-00132-x
About IIASA:
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at
Journal of Industrial Ecology
Material and carbon implications of future mobility infrastructure expansion around the world
18-Jul-2026