New research from the University of Oxford provides the first quantitative evidence that drought exposure over the last 12 months is associated with increased risk of sexual, emotional and physical violence among adolescents in Southern Africa. This risk rises substantially during cumulative droughts over 2 years.
Analysing data from over 20,000 adolescents (aged 13-24) in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Lesotho, the study finds girls and young women, older adolescents (aged 18-24) and those living in rural areas face the highest risk of violence during drought conditions.
Water availability in Southern Africa is expected to decline by 30% by 2050. As water scarcity intensifies, levels of poverty, food insecurity and mental health distress increase – worsening inequalities, separating families and driving harmful coping mechanisms such as child marriage, child labour, and forced migration. This is particularly alarming in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 79 million girls experience sexual violence before age 18 and 1 in 2 children experience a form of violence in the past year. The study highlights that climate change is intensifying this crisis for the region’s 226 million adolescents.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health and led by Dr Bothaina Eltigani , DPhil student and researcher at Oxford’s Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI), found adolescents living in drought conditions experienced:
Dr Bothaina Eltigani commented: 'As a doctor in Sudan, I saw how drought and water scarcity place enormous strain on families – especially in rural communities, where the burden is greatest and the risks to young people’s safety often go unseen. While direct health effects of droughts are increasingly well-understood, the link to violence against adolescents remain largely unexplored. Our findings show that drought disproportionately affects already vulnerable groups and underscores a clear call to action: adolescent and youth-focused, gender-sensitive violence prevention strategies must be integrated into early warning systems with sustainable climate adaptation measures – particularly in regions facing prolonged drought. With climate change expected to increase both the frequency and severity of droughts in Southern Africa, integrating violence prevention into climate resilience strategies is no longer optional – it is essential.'
The study also highlights why vulnerability differs across groups:
Further information, images and media interviews/ enquiries:
The full study is published in The Lancet Planetary Health
Media contact: Rachel Fisher, Department of Social Policy and Intervention
E: communications@spi.ox.ac.uk
M: +44 7711 352715
About the research
The study combines violence victimisation and demographic data from 20,290 adolescents (aged 13-24) in the Violence Against Children Surveys (VACS) from Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho. For this study, drought was defined as a prolonged period of below average rainfall.
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This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [grant number NE/W004976/1] as part of the Agile Initiative at the Oxford Martin School.
About Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford
Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) at the University of Oxford is a global centre of excellence for research and teaching in social policy and the development and evaluation of social interventions.
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The Lancet Planetary Health
Drought exposure and the risk of sexual, emotional, and physical violence against adolescents in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho: an observational study