AUSTIN, Texas—Polar ice experts from Europe and the United States, meeting to pursue greater scientific consensus over the fate of the world's largest fresh water reservoir, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, conclude their three-day meeting at The University of Texas at Austin's Jackson School of Geosciences with the following statement:
Surprisingly rapid changes are occurring in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, a Texas-size region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet facing the southern Pacific Ocean. Experts across a wide range of scientific disciplines from the United States and United Kingdom met in Austin, Texas, to identify barriers to improved predictions of future sea-level rise resulting from these changes.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in February that the scientific community could not provide a best estimate or an upper limit on the rate of sea-level rise in coming centuries because of a lack of understanding of the flow of the large ice sheets.
All of the ice on Earth contains enough water to raise sea level over 200 feet, with about 20 feet from Greenland and almost all of the rest from Antarctica. Although complete loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is not expected, even a small change would matter to coastal populations.
Background:
The two-mile thick pile of ice and snow that is the Antarctic Ice Sheet spreads under its own weight, flowing down to the sea where the ice begins to float as ice shelves, with icebergs breaking off from the edges of the ice shelves. The ice shelves often run aground on islands, providing friction that slows the flow of the ice behind.
The consensus view of the workshop:
Resolving these issues will substantially improve our ability to predict the future sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Signed
Richard Alley, Pennsylvania State University
Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Pennsylvania State University
John Anderson, Rice University
Robert Arthern, British Antarctic Survey
Robert Bindschadler, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Donald Blankenship, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
David Bromwich, The Ohio State University
Ginny Catania, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Beata Csatho, University at Buffalo, the State University of New York
Ian Dalziel, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Theresa Diehl, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Fausto Ferraccioli, British Antarctic Survey
John Holt, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Erik Ivins, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Charles Jackson, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics
Adrian Jenkins, British Antarctic Survey
Ian Joughin, University of Washington
Robert Larter, British Antarctic Survey
Alejandro Orsi, Texas A&M University
Byron Parizek, The College of New Jersey
Tony Payne, University of Bristol
Jeff Ridley, Hadley Center for Climate Prediction, Met Office
John Stone, University of Washington
David Vaughan, British Antarctic Survey
Duncan Young, University of Texas at Austin
For background information on the meeting and the situation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, see the WALSE meeting site at http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/walse/ .