The urban mosquito species, Anopheles stephensi , could spread to dozens of cities across Africa, potentially putting millions of people at higher risk of contracting malaria, a study suggests. Africa has the highest global incidence of malaria, which is spread by mosquitoes. Since 2012, increasingly severe outbreaks of malaria thought to be caused by An. stephensi , an Asian mosquito species that thrives in urban settings, have been reported in Djibouti City in the Horn of Africa, and the species has been found recently in Ethiopia and Sudan. To predict the spread of An. stephensi in Africa, Marianne Sinka and colleagues combined location data for An. stephensi across its full geographic range with spatial models that identify the environmental conditions characterizing the species' preferred habitat. The authors generated maps predicting the possible locations across Africa where An. stephensi could establish if allowed to spread unchecked. The results showed that 44 out of 68 African cities are predicted to be highly suitable locations for this species. As a result, approximately 126 million additional people could be at a heightened risk of malaria if An. stephensi continues its invasion across the continent. According to the authors, the findings highlight the importance of adhering to the World Health Organization recommendations for An. stephensi surveillance efforts and targeted responses to prevent additional malaria-related illness and deaths.
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Article #20-03976: "A new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk," by Marianne Sinka et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Marianne Sinka, University of Oxford, UNITED KINGDOM; e-mail: < marianne.sinka@zoo.ox.ac.uk >
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences