The cause of future food shortages may not be a lack of farmland, but a shortage of agricultural workforce." Amid the reality of low birth rates and rural extinction, a joint international research team from KAIST has developed a new data-driven model that reflects the decline in the agricultural workforce into the analysis of future food security (the ability to stably produce and supply food required by the public). The research findings show that in the future, a shortage of agricultural workforce could act as a key constraint on farmland utilization in most regions of the world.
KAIST announced on June 12th that a research team led by Professor Hyungjun Kim from the Department of AI Future (adjunct at the Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy), in joint research with Professor Haewon Chon from the KI Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy (Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainability), Professor Nicklas Forsell, and Professor Taikan Oki from the University of Tokyo in Japan, analyzed the impact of the agricultural workforce decline on future food production.
Until now, food security and climate change research have mainly focused on "how much farmland can be secured." The approach was to predict the future by calculating whether the climate and soil are suitable for farming and how much food demand will increase in the future.
However, the research team asked a different question: "What if there is farmland, but no one to farm it?" In fact, as low birth rates and urban concentration manifest in many countries, the rural population is declining. As economies develop, there is also a stronger tendency for people to move from agriculture to the manufacturing or service sectors. The research team determined that these changes could have a significant impact on future food production.
The research team performed the analysis using five future scenarios that combine SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), which are representative international scenario frameworks that predict how future society and climate change will unfold. SSP is a scenario that assumes the direction of societal changes such as population growth, economic growth, and technological development, while RCP is a scenario that shows how the future climate will change depending on greenhouse gas emissions.
The research team newly reflected the agricultural workforce variable into these future outlooks. While previous predictions were mainly based on the land available for farming and food demand, this study simultaneously considered the actual number of people who will farm. In other words, the reality that food production can be limited if the agricultural workforce is insufficient, even if farmland and climate conditions are adequate, was reflected in the model.
The results of the analysis were even clearer than expected. In the future, it was shown that the farmland area that can actually be utilized will decrease due to the shortage of agricultural workforce in most regions of the world. In some regions, the lack of agricultural workforce was analyzed to act as a greater limiting factor than climate or soil.
The research team explained that the agricultural workforce problem may not be easily resolved even in a future where technological development occurs rapidly. Technological development increases the cultivable area per person. However, as industries grow, more people move to the manufacturing and service sectors, which conversely accelerates the decline of the rural population, leading to a reduced workforce and a phenomenon where farmland utilization becomes more restricted. These results suggest the importance of a sustainable development model.
In addition, it was confirmed that if international migration is restricted, developed countries will experience a shortage of agricultural workforce, while conversely, the agricultural population in some low-income countries may increase excessively. This shows that migration policies are also closely linked to food security. Professor Hyungjun Kim explained, "This study analyzed future food issues by considering not only climate and land, but also changes in people. It is a study showing that realistic social problems such as low birth rates and the avoidance of rural areas can have a significant impact on future food security and climate change responses."
This study, in which Ph.D. student Hongtak Lee from the Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy participated as the first author and Professor Hyungjun Kim from the Department of AI Future conducted as the corresponding author, was published on June 1 in the international academic journal 'Nature Sustainability'. Furthermore, in recognition of its academic importance, the study was prominently highlighted in a separate commentary titled "Farming needs more hands" (News & Views; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01841-8 ) in the same journal. The commentary evaluated this research as "a first step that shifted the conventional question of 'how much land is there' to whether there are enough people and productivity per worker to cultivate that land." ※ Title of Paper: Agricultural Workforce as a Potential Bottleneck of Future Cropland Availability, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01824-9 ※ Main Authors: Hongtak Lee (KAIST, First Author), Nicklas Forsell (KAIST), Taikan Oki (University of Tokyo), Haewon Chon (KAIST), Hyungjun Kim (KAIST, Corresponding Author)
This research was conducted with the support of the AI-based Future Climate Technology Development Framework Program, the Brain Pool Program, and the Plus Project (Ministry of Science and ICT) through the National Research Foundation of Korea.
Nature Sustainability
Meta-analysis
Not applicable
Agricultural Workforce as a Potential Bottleneck of Future Cropland Availability
18-May-2026