Application of a predator-prey model to groundwater use for crops predicts a decline in irrigated food production in three US High Plains states, according to a study. The High Plains Aquifer supplies water for crop production in eight US states, with an estimated worth greater than 3 billion USD. Previous analyses of the aquifer's use and sustainability have been performed using methods used to analyze oil production. However, unlike oil, aquifers can be recharged over short periods. To account for such factors, Assaad Mrad and colleagues mathematically modeled groundwater use and crop production as a predator-prey type interaction, wherein water represents the prey and food represents the predator. The model accounts for variables influencing groundwater use and crop production, such as technologies that increase irrigation efficiency and recharge of the aquifer by rain and streams. The model accounted for historical reductions and expansions in grain production in Texas and Kansas. The model also predicted that by 2050 Nebraska will have nearly 10 times the groundwater-based food production of Texas due to higher recharge rates in that portion of the aquifer. According to the authors, the model could also be used to account for other factors, such as economic incentives affecting groundwater use and crop production and could help promote sustainable groundwater management.
ARTICLE #20-08383: "Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters," by Assaad Mrad et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Assaad Mrad, Duke University, Durham, NC; e-mail: mradassaad2@gmail.com
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences