A landscape-level approach to wildlife monitoring that tracks populations across political jurisdictions could help improve human cooexistence with apex predators, a study suggests. Although some ecosystems depend critically on large carnivores, efforts to restore apex predators often spark opposition, given that increases in bears, wolves, and other large predators can endanger livestock and public safety. Noting that wildlife populations often occupy areas across political boundaries, Richard Bischof and colleagues attempted to monitor and forecast wildlife population dynamics through space and time in a manner similar to weather forecasting--at spatial scales that transcend national boundaries. Using a dataset of around 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from more than 6,000 individual brown bears, gray wolves, and wolverines, as well as a Bayesian population dynamics model, the authors generated annual density maps and abundance estimates for the large carnivores in Norway and Sweden. The approach revealed evidence suggesting that large carnivore populations are recovering across northern Europe. Additionally, the authors found that humans affect apex predator populations more than any other factor. The study demonstrates that wildlife population dynamics can be monitored and analyzed at scales that are ecologically meaningful and relevant to conservation, according to the authors.
Article #20-11383: "Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring," by Richard Bischof et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Richard Bischof, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, NORWAY; e-mail: richard.bischof@nmbu.no
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences