A University of Cambridge-led analysis of maps made from satellite imagery covering over three decades and seven presidents shows how the winner of Brazil’s national elections since 1990 directly affected the preservation of its globally vital ecosystems.
The study reveals a rollercoaster of habitat loss rates across presidencies in the country's three largest biomes – the Amazon, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest – from a peak of 3.62 million hectares of native vegetation vanishing annually under Itamar Franco in the nineties, to a low of just 1.21 million hectares a year under Temer a decade ago.
Researchers found that the Amazon lost an average of around 994,000 hectares annually during the first three years of Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva's current presidency, compared with 1.4 million hectares a year under his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.
This represents a reduction of about 29% in the average annual area of Amazon lost under Lula’s return compared with Bolsonaro’s time in office, according to the study, published in Environmental Research Communications .
However, in the Cerrado, the vast tropical savannas of central Brazil, the trend moved in the opposite direction. Annual habitat losses averaged around 1.28 million hectares between 2023 and 2025, an increase of around 50% compared with 854,000 hectares per year under Bolsonaro, during whose presidency savanna loss accelerated.
The Cerrado, a vital source of water that feeds many of Brazil’s rivers, has seen major increases in commercial farming of crops such as soybean, as US-China trade tensions during Trump’s first term saw China pivot to Brazilian soybean.
Weaker legal protections, along with efforts to curb deforestation in the Amazon, may have pushed agricultural expansion into the Cerrado, say researchers. They warn that major soy traders’ withdrawal from a moratorium on growing soy on recently deforested land could have devastating consequences for Brazil’s natural habitats.
The study also reveals how the Atlantic Forest, which stretches along Brazil's eastern coastline but has been “highly fragmented” by centuries of farming and urbanisation, actually experienced periods of recovery rather than simply a slowdown in loss.
During Lula's first two terms, the Atlantic Forest gained an average of around 18,000 hectares of native vegetation a year. Under Rousseff, that figure rose to nearly 30,000
hectares annually. Since Rousseff left office, the Atlantic Forest has returned to net vegetation losses, although at a much smaller scale than in the Amazon or Cerrado.
It is the only one of Brazil's three major biomes to have experienced periods of net vegetation gain in the last thirty-five years.
“Brazilian presidents have dictated the fate of the country’s forests and savannas for over three decades,” said study lead author Dr Vinicius Tonetti, a Brazilian conservation biologist at the University of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology.
“We see that presidential terms characterised by strong environmental laws, satellite monitoring, and zero-deforestation agreements are clearly linked to major reductions in habitat loss,” Tonetti said. “Brazil's recent history shows just how much environmental policy matters and comes from the top.”
"Our findings also show that while deforestation in the Amazon has slowed under Lula, the loss of natural habitats across the Cerrado has remained high. Protecting one ecosystem while losing another is not a sustainable solution."
The study used land-cover maps from the MapBiomas project, derived from decades of satellite data, to track changes in the Amazon, Cerrado and Atlantic Forest between 1990 and 2025.
Across all three biomes combined, the largest average annual net loss of native vegetation occurred during the presidency of Itamar Franco, between 1993 and 1994, when approximately 3.62 million hectares disappeared each year.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso's (FHC) administration, from 1995 to 2002, recorded average annual losses of around 3.30 million hectares.
Lula's first two terms, between 2003 and 2010, marked a major turning point, with loss of natural habitat falling by some 35% to an annual average of around 2.44 million hectares. In the Amazon alone, habitat loss was around 20% lower under Lula than under FHC, with a significant slowdown in the rate of deforestation.
“During Lula's first two terms, agricultural production expanded while stronger monitoring and enforcement resulted in more habitat preservation,” said Tonetti. “Economic development and environmental protection do not have to come at the expense of each other."
Under Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff, overall habitat loss almost halved again (a further 46% reduction) to about 1.31 million hectares a year, before reaching just 1.21 million hectares a year on average during Michel Temer's time in office.
Under Bolsonaro, however, major cuts to environment agencies, weakened enforcement, reduced environmental fines, and efforts to loosen environmental regulations coincided with a sharp loss of native vegetation across ecosystems, rising to 2.36 million hectares per year on average, almost doubling (95% increase) from the historic low of Temer’s premiership.
While Lula’s return saw deforestation in the Amazon fall significantly, the overall loss of native vegetation across Brazil’s three major biomes has declined by only around 2%, largely because of increasing vegetation loss in the Cerrado.
The collapse of the soy moratorium in the Amazon and new laws restricting Indigenous land claims are part of a worrying trend that may escalate under a new president, according to Tonetti. For example, Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to overhaul the environmental licensing system if elected.
"Brazil has shown the world that deforestation can be dramatically reduced when there is the political will to act. But that progress is fragile. Recent changes to environmental legislation and the weakening of commitments to deforestation-free soy could undermine years of conservation gains,” said Tonetti.
“As the nation once again elects a president, the voters of Brazil need to understand just how much is at stake for some of the world’s most precious forests and ecosystems.”
The single largest gap in vegetation loss between presidents for any of the biomes was seen in the Amazon, which lost an average of 1.95 million hectares a year under Fernando Henrique Cardoso but just 614,158 hectares a year under Dilma Rousseff – an area of forest the size of Montenegro spared annually.
Note:
The study measured the net change in vegetation cover rather than the total area cleared. Regeneration in some areas can offset losses elsewhere.
Environmental Research Communications
Vegetation cover dynamics across presidential terms in Brazil
22-Oct-2026