In 2020, Mexico joined 150 nations committing to protect 30% of its territory by 2030 as part of the global 30x30 initiative. More than halfway through the decade, there is ongoing debate about how to effectively expand protected areas to meet that ambitious goal.
Mapping the overlap between the country’s current network of protected land and the habitat of 28 terrestrial carnivores, ecologists at the Yale School of the Environment found that 16% of habitat is covered by a legally designated conservation area. The percent overlap is less when considering threatened and endangered species specifically, according to the new study published in Conservation Science and Practice .
The overlap balloons to 39%, though, when the researchers expanded their analysis to include wildlife management units and Indigenous territories — land management types that do not officially count toward Mexico’s biodiversity goals but clearly have a role to play in conservation, the authors say. That finding highlights the need for a diverse mosaic of conservation areas to protect carnivores.
“We’re getting close to 2030, so if we’re going to meet the 30x30 targets, we need a strategy. We need to be deliberate about what counts and what is actually working,” said study author Nyeema Harris, the Knobloch Family Association Professor of Wildlife and Land Conservation. “This analysis allows us to take that first step to assess the portfolio we have, figure out what’s missing, and decide where to focus our attention.”
Protected areas have long been a cornerstone of conservation and have played an important role in minimizing habitat loss. Yet, there is growing recognition of the ways different communities rely on natural resources and interest in “multiple-use areas” that are geared toward human-wildlife coexistence.
This growing awareness motivated the researchers to be more inclusive about what land “counts” in their analysis, Harris said. They decided to examine four types of conservation areas, including formal protected areas, such as national parks, and Indigenous territories that are demarcated more by culture than any particular land use.
They then mapped where managed land intersects with carnivore habitat to both assess the current network of conservation areas and identify priorities for expanding it. They focused specifically on carnivores — including South America’s iconic apex predator, the jaguar — due to their significant ecological, social, and economic value.
“If you include community managed areas, they have a different governance structure, audience, and scale, and their objectives might be slightly different, but they are still contributing to conservation,” Harris said. “If we know where all the potential lands are, and we know where the habitat is, we can use that to focus our attention on where expansion would do the most good.”
The analysis showed that Mexico has a strong network already, which can serve as a model for other countries in Central and South America. Yet, it also highlighted several carnivore hotspots with no protection that the authors point to as priority areas. These are the same areas that other scholars have pinpointed using different biodiversity criteria, which the authors say reinforces the idea of carnivores as “umbrella” species: For example, protecting jaguars, which require huge territories, will naturally benefit lots of overlapping species.
While this geospatial analysis can inform targeted conservation planning, the study emphasizes that on-the-ground monitoring is needed to judge whether protected land designation reduces habitat loss and sustained vulnerable populations in practice.
Conservation areas such as the El Triunfo Biosphere Reserve in southern Mexico help combat biodiversity decline and habitat loss and are becoming increasingly important to effective carnivore protection. Credit: Germar González
“What this study gives us is a map of where to focus conservation and resources next,” said lead author Germar González ‘24 MESc. “But the real conservation outcomes go beyond spatial overlap and depend on levels of enforced capacity, sustained funding, and whether the communities managing these lands have the institutional support to do it well.”
That social component is particularly salient given the benefits of important community-based land management. In fact, the overlap between conservation areas and critical habitat was greatest in Indigenous territories specifically. That suggests that these areas — and the diverse coalitions of people who manage them — can play an important role in helping the country achieve its targets, the authors say.
“As we push toward ambitious targets like 30x30, there is a clear message that resonates not just at a Mexico-level, but at a global one: We can't rely on traditional protected areas alone,” González said. “Formally recognizing and resourcing the conservation work already happening in non-traditional spaces has to be part of the strategy.”
Conservation Science and Practice
Management coverage and spatial gaps for carnivore habitat across Mexico
22-Aug-2026