[CAIRO] More than 2 billion people in some of the poorest communities face significant levels of “cooling poverty”, where they are exposed to life-threatening heat without safe or affordable ways to cool themselves, according to new analysis.
Increasingly frequent and intense hot spells are causing spikes in health risks and deaths globally and those most at risk are those with the least resources to adapt, a study published in Nature Sustainability warns.
It comes as parts of India and Pakistan are grappling with temperatures topping 45 degrees Celsius.
The World Meteorological Organization has also warned of hotter than normal temperatures across the globe in the coming months due to the El Niño effect.
Giacomo Falchetta, scientist, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
“Cooling poverty and what we call systemic cooling poverty refers to conditions in which individuals are prevented from attaining thermal safety, not simply because they lack an air conditioner,” Giacomo Falchetta, a scientist at the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and the study’s lead author told SciDev.Net .
Heat risk is compounded when people lack not only cooling devices, but also adequate housing, healthcare and information about heat risks, he explained.
The study analysed data from more than a million households in 28 countries, most of them in low- and middle-income countries. Of nearly three billion people covered, about 1.2 billion live in areas with moderate cooling poverty, around 550 million face severe cooling deprivation, and about 600 million experience high deprivation across multiple dimensions, the study calculated.
Aziza Mohamed, professor of human geography and urban studies at Cairo University in Egypt, says the study shifts the debate on heat from a purely climatic issue to a developmental, social and spatial one.
“The real danger does not come from climate alone,” she told SciDev.Net . “It comes from the interaction between heat, poverty, housing quality, weak health services and the absence of suitable infrastructure.”
South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are the two regions most affected, for different reasons. In South Asia, almost 80 per cent of the population in the sample live in regions where the systemic cooling poverty index exceeds 55 out of 100.
In countries such as India, Nepal and Bangladesh widespread heat and humidity exposure combines with large outdoor labour forces and gaps in education, information access and cooling policy, says Falchetta.
Harjeet Singh, climate activist and founding director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, says South Asia is “at the absolute frontlines of the climate crisis”, facing “a lethal combination of geographic vulnerability and systemic economic inequality”.
The danger is not heat alone, but humid heat, which makes the body less able to cool itself through sweating, explains Singh. In a region of high population density and informal labour, retreating into an air-conditioned room is not an option for most.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the study finds that extreme heat risks are driven by weak protective infrastructure. Falchetta named Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda and Malawi as countries with extremely high deprivation in housing quality, water and sanitation, energy access, and cooling green and blue spaces.
Even where heat and humidity is less extreme, he warned, “the near-total absence of protective infrastructure means any intensification of heat would be catastrophic”.
The study estimates that about 1.5 billion people live in areas with inadequate infrastructure, and health conditions to deal with heat. More than 90 per cent of people living in Ethiopia, DRC, Rwanda, Malawi and Zambia fit this category.
In contrast, Egypt had relatively low levels of “cooling poverty” (40 out of 100), despite 82 per cent of its population being exposed to hazardous heat and humidity. It performed well across infrastructure, social and policy dimensions.
Poor housing multiplies heat risk, as homes built from rudimentary roof, floor and wall materials can become heat traps rather than refuges, the research highlights.
Singh points out that millions of urban poor people live in settlements with tin or asbestos roofs, which can make indoor temperatures up to five degrees Celsius hotter than outside. Unreliable electricity, unsafe water and poor sanitation also limit cooling, hydration and protection.
Weak healthcare further increases the danger, according to the study. It identified Nepal, Yemen, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Guatemala among the most deprived countries in this regard. Limited healthcare access, explains Falchetta, means treatable heat-related illness can be fatal.
Outdoor workers in agriculture, construction, transport and informal trade are particularly at risk, spending long hours under direct sunlight.
Women, ethnic and religious minorities, elderly people, poorer households and children are disadvantaged because they are more likely to live in poor housing, lack information and healthcare, and have fewer resources to adapt, Falchetta notes.
Education and working standards were the most widespread form of cooling poverty identified in the study. Around 2.2 billion people, about 75 per cent of those studied, live in deprived areas under this lens. India ranks highest, with 95 per cent of its population facing deprivation, followed by the DRC, Nepal, Rwanda and Malawi.
The study and experts agree that air conditioning, which consumes large amounts of energy and strains fragile grids, cannot solve the problem.
“Addressing cooling poverty by distributing air conditioners alone would be neither sufficient nor sustainable,” Falchetta said.
Singh is in no doubt: “We absolutely cannot air-condition our way out of this crisis.”
Instead, the study calls for coordinated, low-cost policies across housing, water, health, labour and urban planning.
Falchetta says better housing design can reduce indoor temperatures without energy inputs. Expanding trees, parks and water bodies can provide community-level cooling, while improving water and sanitation works as both a cooling and health intervention.
Coating tin or concrete roofs with solar-reflective white paint can reduce indoor temperatures by two to five degrees Celsius, says Singh, while straw and clay offer affordable insulation. He calls for public cooling shelters with free drinking water for outdoor workers, restoring urban green spaces and water bodies, and expanding efficient BLDC (brushless direct current) fans.
Chandni Singh, associate professor at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements, says policy is crucial. Protection of blue and green infrastructure and climate-sensitive building codes, such as India’s Cool Roofs Policy, can help, she says.
Falchetta believes heat-health action plans could reduce cooling poverty, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where they are largely absent.
Cities in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have introduced heat action plans, but many lack legal force and budgets, says Harjeet Singh. Governments, he argues, should adopt mandatory rest breaks for outdoor workers, climate-resilient building codes for affordable housing, and financial compensation for daily-wage workers when heat advisories force them indoors.
But Chandni Singh warned: “You cannot adapt your way out of extreme heat endlessly. There are limits to extreme heat adaptation.”
This piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Global desk.