ITHACA, N.Y. —Up to 30% of bird diversity hotspots, places where large numbers of different bird species occur, in the western United States face threats from high-severity wildfires in the future that could eliminate critical forest habitats, according to new research published in the journal Nature Communications .
Scientists from the USDA Forest Service, Cornell Lab of Ornithology, and University of New Mexico combined advanced fire forecasting with bird distribution data from eBird to create the first comprehensive map showing where changing fire regimes will have the most impact on bird communities across the western United States.
“Advances in species distribution modeling using eBird data and fire forecasting give us an incredible lens into the future about how fire might impact biodiversity moving forward,” said Andrew Stillman, applied quantitative ecologist at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. “Thanks to these advances, we can move from a retroactive look at fire impacts to a forward-looking approach.”
The team used data from the eBird Status and Trends Project from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, which processes millions of bird observations submitted by birdwatchers worldwide to identify areas rich in bird species. They combined eBird data with fire severity predictions developed by the USDA Forest Service and classified regions based on predicted fire severity.
“We found that 24 to 30 percent of those hotspots occur in areas that are expected to burn at high severity in the future,” said Stillman. “That, to me, is concerning, but it’s not all bad news.” According to the study up to 58% of bird diversity hotspots occur in areas predicted to experience low-severity fires in the future, creating potential refuges for forest-dependent species. “That’s good news for efforts to create more resilient forests,” said Stillman.
Many of the areas with high bird diversity are predicted to experience high-severity fires that have the potential to cause the majority of the trees to die, but historically those areas primarily experience low-severity fires. This mismatch suggests that many bird communities could face fire conditions they aren’t adapted to handle.
The authors of the study are also concerned that areas predicted to burn with high severity could lead to a change from a forest to other types of vegetation that would not support many of the bird species currently residing in those forests. For example in Oregon, conifer dominated forests may give way to shrubs or hardwood trees, leaving the species that relied on conifers with less habitat. These areas include regions around Lake Tahoe, the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the Colorado Rockies, and parts of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades—all areas with well-documented changing fire patterns.
“In addition to identifying regions critical for future management, this work offers a significant opportunity to identify highly impacted species whose response to fire is poorly understood,” said Kari Norman, lead author and biological scientist with USDA Forest Service Research and Development.
The study found that bird species with specific traits or habitat preferences are more at risk from severe fires. “The most at-risk species are the birds that are associated with high vegetation density,” Stillman said. Birds such as the Brown Creeper and Pacific Wren typically inhabit areas with dense vegetation and these areas historically have not experienced many high-severity fires, putting these species at risk.
“There’s a one-two punch happening here,” said Stillman. “There’s this departure from historical norms, and it’s hitting the species that are most likely to be negatively impacted the hardest.”
The team also noted that some species have a large portion of their breeding population in areas predicted to be impacted by high-severity fires. The Flammulated Owl leads the list, with 59% of its breeding population in areas predicted to see future high-severity fire. Other at-risk species include the Brown-capped Rosy-finch (36% of the nonbreeding population).
But not all species are expected to be negatively impacted by severe fires, according to the research. Some species, such as the Mountain Quail, White-headed Woodpecker, and Williamson’s Sapsucker, may benefit from greater fire activity.
In addition to identifying where forests are most at risk to severe fire, land managers can use high-resolution maps generated from the new research to pinpoint opportunities to minimize fire impacts. The forward-looking approach also enables targeted conservation planning before fires occur rather than responding after damage is done. Land managers, for example, could seek to reduce fuel loads in areas forecasted to be at risk of severe megafires.
“The ability to be forward-looking allows you to plan ahead and understand the areas on the map that need targeted management now,” Stillman said. “This exercise allows us to identify priority areas where fire mitigation strategies might be the most fruitful for safeguarding biodiversity in the future.”
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Norman, K. E., A. Stillman, S. Parks, C. Davis, and G. Jones. (2025). Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fires. Nature Communications https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68480-7
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The Cornell Lab of Ornithology is a nonprofit, member-supported organization dedicated to the understanding and protection of birds, wildlife, and our shared planet through research, education, participatory science, and conservation. birds.cornell.edu
Forest Service Research & Development works at the forefront of science to improve the health and use of our Nation’s forests and grasslands and has been part of the Forest Service mission since its inception in 1905. Forest Service scientists work in collaboration with a range of partners to develop and deliver scientific knowledge and innovative technologies that inform management actions taken by the Forest Service, States, Tribes, and other land managers to sustain the health and productivity of forests and grasslands.
Lisa Bryant, National Press Office, Forest Service, (970) 305-1850, lisa.bryant@usda.gov
Kathi Borgmann, Cornell Lab of Ornithology, (607) 254-2137, klb274@cornell.edu
Nature Communications
Data/statistical analysis
Animals
Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire
17-Feb-2026