New research from the University of Oxford finds that more than one in five children born after 2013 experience poverty for at least half of their childhood (from birth to age ten). The study provides the first comprehensive evidence on trends and drivers in long-term childhood poverty across birth cohorts in Britain.
Tracking children born in Britain between 1991 and 2017, the study finds that long-term childhood poverty fell for children born after the late 1990s, remained stable for children born in the 2000s, and then rose sharply again among those born after 2013, when the austerity reforms started to be implemented. By the 2016-2017 cohort, 23% of children experienced long-term childhood poverty.
Poverty during childhood is associated with worse outcomes later in life, including for educational achievement, employment prospects, earnings and health. Longer exposure is linked to more damaging consequences.
The study, Long-term childhood poverty in Britain: Trends and drivers across the 1991-2017 birth cohorts, by Dr Selçuk Bedük of Oxford’s Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) and Anna Yong, Social Research Institute, UCL, finds:
25% of children born in the early 1990s experienced poverty for at least half of childhood
This fell to 13-14% among children born in the 1998-1999 cohort, following welfare reforms after 1997
Rates of long-term childhood poverty remained stable for children born in the 2000s, despite the 2008 financial crisis, partly because of increased support for lower-income families following the post-1997 welfare reforms
Following the post-2013 austerity reforms, the long-term childhood poverty rate rose sharply, reaching 23% for the 2016-2017 cohort
Across the past three decades, nearly one in six children in Britain (17%) have experienced poverty for at least half of childhood, rising to above one in five for cohorts born after 2013
The findings come as child poverty has returned to the centre of policy debate. In January 2026, the UK Government published its Child Poverty Strategy , which identified child poverty as a national priority. The strategy highlights the high societal cost of child poverty, including its long-term impact on education, employment, earnings and health, but does not specifically address long-term childhood poverty.
Dr Selçuk Bedük, University of Oxford, said: ‘For nearly a quarter of children in Britain today, poverty is long-term and defines much of their childhood. Our study shows that policy matters: when support for families on low incomes is stronger, long-term childhood poverty falls. When that support is reduced, more children are pushed into long-term poverty. If the government wants to bring those numbers down, it needs to restore benefits to their real pre-austerity value.’
Anna Yong, UCL, commented: ‘The longer children spend in poverty, the deeper the harm. Our study shows long-term poverty is not inevitable; it is the result of policy choices that can be reversed. The recent removal of the two-child limit could be an important step in the right direction, but restoring the wider safety net is equally urgent.’
The research findings suggest that changes such as lifting the two-child limit and uprating Universal Credit could reduce long-term childhood poverty. By contrast, an increase in the minimum wage alone, without adequate benefit support, would be unlikely to have a significant effect on long-term childhood poverty.
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Notes for editors
Suggested wording regarding causality: The study finds the rise in long-term childhood poverty for those born after 2013 is associated with the reduction in social transfers following the austerity reforms.
The full study is published in the Journal of Social Policy (Cambridge University Press)
TITLE: Long-term childhood poverty in Britain: Trends and drivers across the 1991-2017 birth cohorts.
AUTHORS: Dr Selçuk Bedük, Department of Social Policy and Intervention , University of Oxford; and Anna Yong , Social Research Institute, UCL.
Further information, images and media interviews/enquiries:
Rachel Fisher, Communications Officer
E: communications@spi.ox.ac.uk
M: +44 7711 352715
About the research
The study examines trends in long-term childhood poverty in Britain. It tracked poverty from birth to age 10 among 6,218 children born in Great Britain between 1991-2017. Northern Ireland is not included in the sample as data was not available for the first 10 years of the survey years.
For this study, long-term childhood poverty was defined as experiencing income poverty in at least half of childhood during the first 11 years, where poverty is measured based on a relative measure of equivalized disposable household income (using a threshold of 60% of median).
For ‘austerity reforms’ please refer to:
House of Commons Work and Pensions Committee (2019) The welfare safety net: inquiry report. Fourteenth Report of Session 2017–19, HC 1539. London: House of Commons. Availableat: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmworpen/1539/153902.htm (Accessed: 30 March 2026).
Beatty, C. and Fothergill, S. (2018), 'Welfare reform in the United Kingdom 2010–16: Expectations, outcomes, and local impacts', Social Policy & Administration, 52(5), pp. 983–1003. https://doi.org/10.1111/spol.12353
About Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford
The Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) at the University of Oxford is a global centre of excellence for research and teaching in social policy and the development and evaluation of social interventions.
With a history spanning over a century, DSPI brings together an international, multidisciplinary community of academics and researchers whose work informs social policy and practice in the UK and worldwide. Through high-impact research, peer-reviewed publications and a portfolio of unrivalled graduate programmes, the department influences the social landscape, from the way government funds are allocated to the delivery of local programmes.
About the University of Oxford
Oxford University has been placed number 1 in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for the tenth year running, and number 3 in the QS World Rankings 2024. At the heart of this success are the twin-pillars of our ground-breaking research and innovation and our distinctive educational offer.
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Journal of Social Policy
Long-term childhood poverty in Britain: trends and drivers across the 1991–2017 birth cohorts
13-Apr-2026