In a survey of 3,077 adults in the United States who were asked to predict the economic outcomes of hypothetical children from different family income levels, researchers compared the responses with tax data and found that individuals overestimated the economic prospects of children from middle-income and wealthy families earning above the 34th percentile of parent-income distribution and underestimated the economic prospects of children from poor families earning below the 34th percentile of parent-income distribution, even when the children possessed attributes that promote economic mobility; the results suggest that liberals, college graduates, or individuals living in households with an annual income of $30,000-$99,999 are more pessimistic about the equality of prospects for economic mobility.
Article #18-14688: "Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks," by Siwei Cheng and Fangqi Wen.
MEDIA CONTACT: Siwei Cheng, New York University, NY; tel: 734-389-9541; email: siwei.cheng@nyu.edu , soc.siweicheng@gmail.com
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences