Milan, 24 February 2026 - A study published in Nature Food by researchers from the Politecnico di Milano and the University of California at Berkeley provides forward-thinking answers to the debate on the role of environmental stresses on migration processes.
The analysis, conducted on a dataset of 40,000 cases of environmental migration in Somalia and led by Professor Maria Cristina Rulli , coordinator of the Glob3ScienCE (Global Studies on Sustainable Security in a Changing Environment) Lab, shows that the main reasons for these displacements can be attributed to water scarcity . Drought, the insufficient water content of the soil with respect to the needs of agriculture, and food insecurity caused as a result, directly affect Somalia's agricultural and pastoral communities, which represent about 80% of the national population. Sinafekesh Wolde , first author of the article, explained: "The results show an exodus from areas characterised by drought, food insecurity and scarcity of water for agricultural uses: between 76% and 91% of environmental migrations have originated in these hotspots."
Previous studies analysed the roles of climate change in migration processes, but lacked a precise understanding of migrations directly associated with extreme hydroclimatic events , whether sudden or slow-developing in nature. The study, based on field observations, interviews, operational data of first responders and multivariate spatial analyses, systematically covered the interaction between hydroclimatic factors and migration dynamics. The aim was to identify the main environmental factors contributing to the displacements of people. A study was then carried out on how combinations of environmental stresses influence the migratory decisions of agricultural and agro-pastoral communities. Extreme hydroclimatic events, including droughts, floods and storms, accounted for 98% of the 32.6 million internal migrations recorded globally in 2022. Somalia, a country highly vulnerable to droughts and famines, is a case in point .
With a population of more than 19 million, Somalia has a socio-economic structure that depends on subsistence agropastoralism. This dependence is intertwined with socio-cultural structures in which access to land and productive resources is influenced by gender dynamics, and with the legacy of three decades of civil war, political instability and humanitarian crises. Maria Cristina Rulli said: "Even in regions that have overcome the most critical phases of the conflict and are starting to rebuild, the frequency and increasing intensity of hydroclimatic events continue to represent the most significant threat ." Somalia, in fact, is exposed to recurrent and prolonged droughts that compromise the livelihoods of rural communities by undermining food security and causing farmers to look elsewhere for other means of subsistence. High or critical levels of water scarcity for agriculture have often forced entire communities to abandon their traditional systems of livelihood, making them dependent on humanitarian aid. This cycle of environmental stress, loss of livelihood, displacement and dependence on subsidies further fuels economic migration to industrialised cities, neighbouring countries or destinations abroad.
Somalia is seeking to improve its climate resilience, for example through better management of water resources and pastures. Maria Cristina Rulli concluded: "The study highlights how these measures must be adopted together with community solutions, coordinated policies and international collaboration to effectively address the growing impacts of global changes in hydroclimate on the most vulnerable populations."
Glob3science – Global Studies on Sustainable Security in a Changing Environment – is a multidisciplinary research group based at the Politecnico di Milano which has dedicated itself to global studies on the interdependencies and teleconnections between the hydrological cycle and human activities. The group focuses in particular on water security, food security and the water-energy-food nexus both under current conditions and in relation to global changes.
Nature Food
More than three-quarters of environmental migration in Somalia is driven by water deficiency for food and livestock production
26-Jan-2026