The analysis demonstrates, first, that the size of a population and its time-to-extinction are related by a logarithmic (rather than linear) function, confirming a key prediction from the theory of stochastic population dynamics. Second, two lines of evidence suggest that these ten extinction-bound populations collectively exhibit dynamics akin to those theoretically proposed to occur in "extinction vortices", in which key aspects of a populations' dynamics (e.g., mean and variance in the rate of change) deteriorate as extinction approaches. Together, these results provide key empirical insights into extinction dynamics, which is critical for improved management of rare species.
Ecology Letters