With over a fifth of the global population, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) represents a massive piece of the international climate puzzle. Figuring out how these eight nations can expand their economies without severely degrading the atmosphere is an urgent, complex challenge. Now, an in-depth econometric analysis provides a concrete, data-backed roadmap for balancing regional wealth with environmental health.
Authored by corresponding researcher Imran Khan , who bridges the Department of Economics at The University of Haripur in Pakistan and the School of Economics and Management at China University of Mining and Technology in China, this paper replaces theoretical climate goals with hard numbers. By deploying advanced statistical tools—specifically Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models and cointegration tests—the research tracks the exact push-and-pull between national wealth generation and carbon dioxide outputs across the region.
The investigation highlights a stubborn economic paradox. As South Asian countries globalize and build up their industrial sectors, their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reliably climbs. However, this financial growth historically demands a steep atmospheric toll.
Key metrics from the analysis include:
Anchored by the cross-border expertise of The University of Haripur and China University of Mining and Technology , the study delivers a direct mandate for SAARC policymakers. To achieve true carbon neutrality, governments must actively rewrite their economic blueprints by aggressively funding renewable energy grids, realigning outdated industrial frameworks, and enforcing strict carbon-pricing mechanisms.
For a region housing billions of people, this empirical evidence confirms that continuous economic prosperity and a green transition are not mutually exclusive. With the right fiscal levers, they are entirely interdependent.
Corresponding Author:
Imran Khan Department of Economics, The University of Haripur, Haripur, Pakistan. School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Data/statistical analysis
Not applicable
Green pathways to carbon neutrality: evidence from South Asian economies
3-Mar-2026
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.