Researchers report a strong correlation between the depth-averaged temperature over the upper 40 m in the eastern North Atlantic and September tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, likely reflecting high ocean temperatures driving reduced trade winds and reduced wind shear in the tropics; consideration of subsurface temperatures improved predictions of September tropical cyclone activity up to 3 months in advance, compared with predictions based on sea surface temperatures alone, according to the authors.
###
Article #18-10755: "Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity," by Enrico Scoccimarro et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Enrico Scoccimarro, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, ITALY; tel: +39-3497434325; e-mail: enrico.scoccimarro@cmcc.it
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences