This study is led by Academician Fahu Chen from Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The researchers combined 14 high-quality Holocene paleo-precipitation and moisture records with climate model simulations to investigate the relationship between precipitation changes and the development of prehistoric cultures in eastern China.
The results show that Holocene precipitation in the East Asian monsoon region did not change uniformly across eastern China. Instead, it exhibited a clear north-south dipole pattern on millennial timescales. During the Middle Holocene, approximately 8000 to 4000 years ago, northern China became wetter while southern China became relatively drier. In contrast, southern China received more precipitation during the Early and Late Holocene, while northern China became relatively drier.
The researchers further compared archaeological evidence and found that northern and southern China broadly experienced similar stages of cultural development from the Neolithic to the Bronze Age, including the emergence of agriculture, the development of agricultural societies, and the formation of early states. The different effects of precipitation changes in northern and southern environments may have contributed to this broadly synchronous development.
In northern China, where agriculture depended strongly on rainfall, increased precipitation during the Middle Holocene improved the productivity and stability of millet agriculture in the Yellow River and Liao River regions. In the humid Yangtze River region, however, reduced precipitation could shrink lakes and wetlands and lower water tables, creating more land suitable for rice cultivation. Thus, the same climatic change produced different environmental effects in northern and southern China while supporting agricultural development in both regions.
After approximately 4000 years ago, the East Asian summer monsoon weakened and the regional climate pattern changed again. Increasing precipitation in southern China intensified flooding and made some low-lying areas less suitable for stable agriculture. At the same time, the Central Plains, located in the transition zone between northern and southern China, experienced relatively moderate climatic changes and remained suitable for dryland agriculture. With the introduction of wheat agriculture and pastoral practices, the agricultural system in the Central Plains became more diverse, supporting population growth and increasing social complexity.
The study provides a new climate perspective on the formation of Chinese civilization. The spatial differences in Holocene precipitation not only shaped distinct ecological environments but also influenced agricultural development and contributed to the parallel evolution of cultures across northern and southern China. During the Late Holocene, the Central Plains gradually became a major center of population and cultural development, helping drive the transition from a diverse regional cultural landscape toward a pluralistic and integrated Chinese civilization.
See the article:
Chen F, Zhang Z, Gao Y, Chen J, Bai Z, Chen S, Chen J, Jia X. 2026. The spatial dipole pattern of Holocene precipitation in the eastern China monsoon region and its role in driving the synchronous north-south development of Neolithic cultures and early Chinese civilization. Science China Earth Sciences, 69(8): 3145–3158, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1904-1
Science China Earth Sciences