A global study of mangroves has found a modest boost in conserved area could significantly increase their ability to adapt to the changing climate, including rising sea levels.
University of Queensland PhD candidate Alvise Dabalà led analysis which showed safeguarding the coastal ecosystem didn’t require huge expansions in protected areas, just smarter planning.
“Mangrove forests are vital fish nurseries and carbon sinks that also shield coastlines from storms and erosion, but they’re vulnerable to rising sea levels and development,” Mr Dabalà said.
“While 43 per cent of the world’s mangroves are in protected areas, these are not always in the best locations when climate change is considered.
“By preferentially targeting places where there is less impact of climate change, our analysis found just a 7.3 per cent increase in protected areas can make mangrove networks 13.3 per cent more resilient.
“In practical terms, a small increase protecting where mangroves have the best chance of surviving in the future and not just where they exist today will pay dividends.”
The study led by UQ’s School of the Environment combined maps of mangrove species and distribution with a model that predicts the probability of mangrove loss under future climate change.
It then compared a standard conservation plan with a climate-smart plan that prioritised the most resilient areas.
“Our research shows climate-smart conservation is achievable and affordable,” Mr Dabalà said.
“It also reveals a need for tailored strategies for the landward and seaward edges of mangrove forests, because they face different climate-related stressors.
“On the landward sides infrastructure like roads can block mangroves migrating inland as sea levels rise, so a strategy that allows room for movement would protect the ecosystem for the long term.
“International cooperation is crucial to success, because transboundary planning protects more resilient mangroves while using less total area than isolated national efforts.”
Co-author Professor Anthony Richardson said the study’s blueprint for mangroves could be applied to other ecosystems.
“Where there is data on distribution and climate resilience, this methodology can help future-proof other vulnerable ecosystems by focusing conservation and protection efforts,” Professor Richardson said.
The research is published in Nature Communications .
Images available via Dropbox .
Nature Communications
Computational simulation/modeling
Not applicable
Safeguarding climate-resilient mangroves requires only a moderate increase in the global protected area
27-Feb-2026
Christopher J. Brown co-leads the Global Mangrove Alliance’s Science Working Group, an organisation dedicated to advancing mangrove conservation. No other authors have any competing interests.