How will climate change impact Canada, home to the largest number of lakes in the world?
A recent study by the University of Ottawa and Laval University shows that climate change may cause many areas in Canada to experience significant droughts by the end of the century. In response, the researchers have introduced an advanced AI-based method to map drought-prone regions nationwide.
The research was conducted by a dedicated team of highly qualified personnel (HQP) under the supervision of Associate Professor Hossein Bonakdari , from uOttawa’s Department of Civil Engineering, in collaboration with Professor Silvio Gumiere from Laval University. The project is supported by funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through the Discovery Grant program and the Québec government’s Fonds de Recherche du Québec - Nature et Technologies .
“Drought is a significant threat to Canada, impacting agriculture, water resources and ecosystems,” explains Professor Bonakdari, lead researcher on the project. “Our research provides a detailed analysis of historical drought patterns and projections for future drought trends, allowing for more informed decision-making in climate resilience planning.”
The study offers a crucial and detailed understanding of how climate change will reshape Canada’s environmental landscape, particularly with respect to precipitation patterns, temperature increases and drought frequency. The findings reveal that:
This study uses deep-learning techniques and integrates data from the Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM) and ERA5-Land to analyze historical drought patterns and to project future trends up to 2100. According to Professor Bonakdari, “this innovative approach fills data gaps and enables robust projections under different climate change scenarios outlined by the sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The ability to accurately forecast drought areas in Canada using AI is a significant advancement in climate resilience planning.”
Key messages for the public include:
This study, published in Climate Journal , offers useful insights for policymakers, resource managers and stakeholders throughout Canada. By recognizing differences in regional drought risks and the impact of rising temperatures, they can take proactive steps to safeguard Canadian communities and ecosystems amidst a changing climate.
Climate
Meta-analysis
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Advanced Forecasting of Drought Zones in Canada Using Deep Learning and CMIP6 Projections
10-Aug-2024