A new study published in Nature Climate Change estimates that a 1-meter sea level rise by 2100 would affect over 14 million people and $1 trillion worth of property along the Southeast Atlantic coast, from Norfolk, Virginia, to Miami, Florida.
The study assesses the cumulative impact of multiple climate-driven coastal hazards, including sea level rise, flooding, beach erosion, sinking land, and rising groundwater, all of which are expected to worsen significantly by the end of the 21st century.
The scale of these interconnected hazards is much greater than anticipated, said study co-author Manoochehr Shirzaei from Virginia Tech’s Department of Geosciences.
“The risk of flooding, compounded by sinking land and beach loss, could displace millions and damage critical infrastructure unless robust adaptation strategies are implemented,” said Shirzaei.
Key findings
The study stresses the necessity of a holistic approach to coastal resilience that addresses the full spectrum of climate-related hazards.
“We need to rethink how we plan and build for the future, especially in highly vulnerable coastal regions,” said Shirzaei. “By including a wider range of climate hazards in resilience strategies, we can better protect our communities from the compounded effects of sea level rise and extreme weather.”
The study, led by Patrick Barnard of U.S. Geological Survey, was conducted using cutting-edge geospatial data and modeling tools developed in collaboration with academic institutions and government agencies. The researchers employed the Coastal Storm Modeling System and other state-of-the-art models to project potential coastal hazard impacts, providing a crucial resource for informed decision-making.
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02180-2
Nature Climate Change
21-Nov-2024