A global accounting of the ecosystem services that could be lost to sea level rise reaches well past 100 billion in 2020 international dollars (Int$2020) per year by 2100, according to a study—and the nations that are likely to lose the most are not the highest emitters. As the climate warms, melting ice and the expansion of water with heat have been raising the sea level. Qinglong Shao and colleagues calculated the ecosystem service value that would be destroyed by the sea level rise predicted for 2030–2100 by several different scenarios used by climate modelers. Although most of the lost land is impervious surfaces and croplands, the ecosystem type with the highest relative loss is wetlands, which could lose 1.21%–2.20% of their total extent due to sea level rise, depending on the scenario. The authors calculated the value of land’s provisioning, regulating, habitat, and cultural values using the Ecosystem Services Valuation Database 2.0. Ecosystem service losses total 164.46 billion Int$2020 per year under a "Middle of the Road" scenario. National absolute losses are highest in China, Myanmar, Brazil, Russia, and Vietnam. However, relative loss—the amount of ecosystem services lost to sea level rise as compared to the total value of ecosystem services created by the country—is highest in low-lying coastal and delta countries, such as the Netherlands, Egypt, the Bahamas, Belgium, and Iraq. The authors also compared each country’s cumulative carbon dioxide emissions up to 2024, normalized by its 2024 population, to its predicted per capita loss of ecosystem value. According to the authors, the countries that will lose the most were not the worst emitters, and the injustice of the harms will only increase after midcentury, with implications for Loss and Damage financing.
PNAS Nexus
Sea-level rise drives unequal erosion of global ecosystem service value
3-Nov-2026