A study finds that a Bayesian modeling framework, applied to the population of each 100-m grid cell in Nigeria, can estimate the population in each section with an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare in areas not covered by a microcensus survey; the results suggest that similar frameworks may be able to estimate population in resource-poor or conflict-affected areas where regular census surveys are not feasible.
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Article #19-13050: "National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty," by Douglas R. Leasure, Warren C. Jochem, Eric M. Weber, Vincent Seaman, and Andrew J. Tatem.
MEDIA CONTACT: Douglas R. Leasure, University of Southampton, UNITED KINGDOM; e-mail: < doug.leasure@gmail.com >
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences