Research Background
Traditional LCC studies deliver single-point cost figures that mask the volatility of emerging technologies. For PEMWE plants, two dominant sources of uncertainty exist:
Research Content
Using a bottom-up, net-present-value framework compliant with ISO 15686-5, the authors integrated Monte-Carlo simulation (via the Monaco package) and the Prophet forecasting algorithm to:
All input data—material prices, BoP costs, recycling rates, labour rates, energy tariffs—were sourced from 2018-2023 market quotations and official statistics.
Key Results
For a 5 MW PEMWE plant in Germany producing app. 17.8 kt H₂ over 20 years:
–Iridium price variability alone contributes ~35 % of CAPEX variance; Nafion membranes add ~25 %; power electronics ≈20 %.
Research Significance
The open-source tool (available at github.com/LCC-Tool/LCC_Tool_5MW-PEMWE) allows investors, policymakers and plant operators to:
By embedding Monte-Carlo simulation and transparent data pipelines, researchers give decision-makers the confidence interval they need for bankable hydrogen projects.
Frontiers in Energy
Experimental study
Not applicable
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22-Aug-2025