A study explores the sociopolitical context of climate change impacts on biodiversity. As the climate changes, the ranges of many species are also expected to change. Mark Titley, Stephen Willis, and colleagues modeled the distributions of more than 12,700 bird and mammal species under four climate scenarios, projecting the species' ranges to 2070. Under medium-emissions and high-emissions scenarios, species loss was highest in countries with the lowest GDP and CO2 emissions. Next, the authors considered how species might move in relation to political borders. Under a high-emissions scenario, 35% of mammals and 29% of birds were projected to have more than half of their future ranges in countries in which they are not currently found, creating potential conservation issues across boundaries. The authors also combined the future distribution data with the existence of 32,000 km of physical border barriers, finding that the barriers currently in existence or under construction could obstruct the dispersal of almost 700 nonflying species as their ranges shift, with 122 of these species along the US-Mexico border. According to the authors, conservation efforts must be better coordinated across national borders and the impacts of border barriers on species must be mitigated as the climate changes.
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Article #20-11204: "Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change," by Mark A. Titley, Stuart H. M. Butchart, Victoria R. Jones, Mark J. Whittingham, and Stephen G. Willis.
MEDIA CONTACT: Stephen Willis, Durham University, UNITED KINGDOM; email: < s.g.willis@durham.ac.uk >; Mark Titley, Durham University, UNITED KINGDOM; email: < mark.a.titley@durham.ac.uk >
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences