CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Technological advances in autonomous truck technology are poised to have significant economic ripple effects for U.S. interstate commerce, highway infrastructure and labor costs, says new research co-written by a team of University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign economists.
Self-driving truck technology “has a very high potential to change the economic geography of the U.S.,” said Taejun Mo , an Illinois graduate student and first author of the paper.
“We all know that there’s already very good truck transportation infrastructure in the U.S., with a lot of cargo crisscrossing the country,” he said. “But autonomous truck transportation can make everything even more efficient. Human truck drivers cannot drive 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Autonomous trucks can, and their routes can be even more direct since they don’t have to stop. Self-driving technology has great potential to rewrite the economic geography of the U.S., which in and of itself will create new winners and losers.”
The paper, which was published by the Journal of Regional Science, was co-written by Illinois agricultural and consumer economics professors Sandy Dall’erba , William Ridley , Yilan Xu and Hyungsun Yim .
The researchers estimated the widespread implementation of driverless truck technology in the U.S. could reduce transportation costs by 35%, resulting in significant increases in total interstate trade value. But since transportation costs influence trade flows differently depending on each state’s economic specialization, “the impact would vary across states,” Mo said.
According to the paper, the researchers found distinct patterns of increases across specific areas of the country, with the South‐Central and Midwest regions of the U.S. — Mississippi, Kentucky, Arkansas, Kansas and Iowa, for example — exhibiting the highest percentage increases in exports, while the largest absolute values in export increases were concentrated in economically significant states such as California, Texas, Illinois and Pennsylvania.
“Our results underscore the central role that those states play in the U.S. domestic trade network as well as their capacity to take advantage of advances in transportation technology and logistics,” Mo said.
The researchers’ model considered a wide range of goods, including agricultural products, commodities such as crude oil, chemicals, textiles, machinery and electronics.
“It’s not just food or agricultural products that would benefit from autonomous trucking,” Mo said. “The price of some goods is very sensitive to transportation cost increases, which autonomous trucking would bring down. And other goods are driven by local demand or regional supply chains, which would also be cheaper with self-driving trucks.”
The findings point to significant policy implications for transportation infrastructure, trade regulation and economic development in the U.S., the researchers said.
“If a certain geographic area were a major transportation hub in the days before autonomous trucking, it’s possible that it would not be a major hub in the future,” Mo said. “Certain places will benefit, while others will be left behind. There’s inevitably going to be winners and losers in more than one dimension from this gradual transformation of truck transportation infrastructure.”
One of the other potential tradeoffs is that some highly traveled routes will need increased infrastructure investment while others will need less and potentially fall by the wayside.
“If there’s a shift in trade flows, there’s going to be more wear and tear on those roads,” Mo said. “If all these trucks are taking the most efficient route, they’re all going to go through this one route. They’re not going to go through a route that’s farther away. So not only will the most traveled infrastructure degrade faster and need to have more maintenance funds directed to it, the less-traveled routes will also degrade through reduced use and reduced improvement fund.”
Certain workers will also bear the burden of this pivot to automation, Mo noted.
“Drivers and mechanics who previously relied on the truck transportation industry for a career will have to be upskilled and reskilled, otherwise they risk being downsized and displaced,” he said. “The effects of autonomous truck technology will be beneficial to many, but certainly not to all.”
Journal of Regional Science
Data/statistical analysis
Not applicable
The Impact of Autonomous Truck Technology on US Interstate Trade
4-May-2026
None.