What psychological factors influence public support for decarbonisation policies? A team at the University of Geneva (UNIGE) has developed an artificial intelligence–based model to predict the level of public support for energy transition measures, whether related to electricity, heating or mobility. Based on fourteen key factors, the model shows that emotions play a decisive role than purely rational considerations. Published in Nature Energy , this research provides policymakers with practical tools to design transparent communication and strengthen public acceptance of energy transition policies.
For decarbonisation policies—whether related to electricity, heating or transport—to be implemented effectively, they must receive broad public support. However, even among well-informed citizens, such support does not depend solely on rational considerations. Emotions, values and beliefs also play a major role.
A team from UNIGE therefore sought to identify which of these factors are the most influential. After reviewing and testing fifty variables drawn from the scientific literature, the researchers used machine learning (artificial intelligence) to identify the strongest predictors of support, grouped into four categories:
• Emotional responses: Overall affect—that is, the general feeling towards a policy—is the most influential predictor. Specific emotions such as hope (ranked third), pride (fourth), worry (tenth) and anger (twelfth) also play a major role.
• Beliefs about policy impacts: Perceptions of societal and environmental effects are decisive. Perceived impacts on individual well-being and personal financial circumstances (eleventh) also contribute to levels of support.
• Perceptions of fairness: The sense of fairness, both at the individual level and with regard to Swiss citizens as a whole (seventh), strongly influences policy acceptance.
• Social norms: Perceived dynamic norms—that is, expectations about how public support will evolve over time—appear to be an important driver of support (eighth).
Tested in real-world conditions
The team then tested these predictors in the context of a real referendum: the vote held in Switzerland on 9 June 2024 on the amendment to the “Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply Based on Renewable Energies”. The aim of the referendum was to determine whether voters would approve an increase in Switzerland’s renewable energy production in order to reduce the country’s dependence on imported energy.
The research team surveyed more than 700 citizens online during the week preceding the vote, using statements related to these predictors. Examples included: “Overall, how do you feel about this measure?”; “This measure will benefit society and individuals”; and “Do you think the number of people in Switzerland who support this policy is likely to increase or decrease over the next 12 months?”.
“Based on these data, we predicted a majority in favour of the Federal Act on Renewable Energy, at 61.83 per cent—a result consistent with national polls conducted three to four weeks before the vote,” explains Morris Krainz, a doctoral researcher at the Consumer Decision and Sustainable Behavior Lab, affiliated with the Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences and the Swiss Centre for Affective Sciences at UNIGE, and lead author of the study . “The vote ultimately confirmed this trend, with 68.7 per cent in favour. Our model not only correctly predicted the outcome of the vote – with an accuracy of 87% – but also confirmed the emotional factors that played a decisive role.”
The model was also tested on various climate change mitigation measures in six European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain) through online surveys
“Our approach can help inform the design of public policies that are better aligned with the concerns of well-informed citizens. Transparent communication about societal benefits is essential to accelerating the energy transition,” concludes Tobias Brosch, Director of the Consumer Decision and Sustainable Behavior Lab and Full Professor at the Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences as well as at the Swiss Centre for Affective Sciences at UNIGE, who supervised this research.
This study has led to the publication of a Policy Brief , which is available online.
Nature Energy
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"Perceived societal and environmental impacts, fairness and emotions predict policy support in Europe"
15-May-2026