Edward Oughton, Associate Professor, Geography and Geoinformation Science, College of Science, is set to receive funding for the project: “Collaborative Research: AI-enabled, Uncertainty-Aware Space Weather Risk Characterization and Mitigation for Satellite Operations.”
This project will develop an AI-enabled, uncertainty-aware framework for translating probabilistic space weather forecasts into operational satellite risk and socio-economic consequence estimates for modern Low Earth Orbit and Very Low Earth Orbit satellite systems.
With collaborators at the West Virginia University, The Ohio State and the Southwest Research Institute, the work will generate calibrated forecasts of geomagnetic storm occurrence, timing, intensity, and driver type; convert them into stochastic storm forcing and bounded drag-response estimates; and propagate these uncertainties into orbital migration, degraded operational modes, conjunction-management burden, and orbit-correction demand.
The project will then link these operational disruptions to satellite service degradation, embedded sectoral dependencies, economic losses, and operator mitigation decisions, creating a systems level capability for assessing how space weather uncertainty propagates from the Sun to satellite operations and society.
Oughton will receive $499,837 from the National Science Foundation for this project. Funding will begin in Oct. 2026 and end in late Sept. 2030.
Collaborators:
Piyush M Mehta at UWV: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award/?AWD_ID=2629143
Mrinal Kumar at OSU: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award?AWD_ID=2629144
Subhamoy Chatterjee at SRI: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show-award/?AWD_ID=2629146
###
George Mason University is Virginia’s largest public research university. Located near Washington, D.C., George Mason enrolls more than 40,000 students from 130 countries and all 50 states. George Mason has grown rapidly over the past half century and is recognized for its innovation and entrepreneurship, remarkable diversity, and commitment to accessibility. In 2023, the university launched Mason Now: Power the Possible , a $1 billion comprehensive campaign to support student success, research, innovation, community, and stewardship. Learn more at GMU.EDU .