Climate Modeling

New scenarios needed to address climate crisis

New method to carry out long term climate simulations at fraction of cost

Scientists seek to understand effects of rain falling on snow in the Arctic

New study shows why rainfall remains hard to predict in a warming world

A new study reveals that climate models are less confident in predicting regional rainfall patterns due to uncertainties in large-scale wind patterns. This limits confidence in forecasts of floods and droughts, particularly in regions vulnerable to these events.

Computational “time machine” shows solar and wind on track for 2°C target but not for 1.5°C

A new computational model developed by researchers at Chalmers University of Technology shows that onshore wind is likely to supply around 25% of global electricity by 2050 and solar reaching about 20%, aligning with the 2°C target. However, this falls short of what is required for a 1.5°C goal.

San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance and Scripps Institution of Oceanography partner for innovative conservation efforts

The partnership aims to boost conservation impact by harnessing advanced digital technology and biobanking techniques, focusing on three core areas: knowledge transfer, innovation, and student engagement. This collaboration seeks to address pressing environmental challenges such as biodiversity threats and emerging pathogens.

AMS Science Preview: Mississippi River, ocean carbon storage, gender and floods

Researchers investigated the Mississippi River's hydrological trends, ocean carbon storage, and gender dynamics in flood mortality. A study found that precipitation increases, but soil moisture decreases, while high-resolution models reveal stronger Southern Ocean carbon absorption. Additionally, data showed men are overrepresented in ...

Why the planet doesn’t dry out together: scientists solve a global climate puzzle

Researchers have shown that ocean temperature patterns limit the global spread of droughts, with synchronised droughts affecting only 1.8% to 6.5% of global land. The study identified 'drought hubs' in regions like Australia, South America, and southern Africa.

New knowledge about Northern Europe's radiator: Volcanic eruptions in the past may have pushed ocean current towards collapse

New research from the University of Copenhagen suggests that volcanic eruptions during the Ice Age may have disrupted the AMOC, threatening Denmark's climate. The study shows that extreme volcanic eruptions can throw the climate system out of balance and push the AMOC into a weakened or collapsed state.

UK winters becoming wetter due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

A study by Newcastle University found that UK winters are becoming significantly wetter, with a 7% increase in rainfall per degree of global warming, driven by rising temperatures from anthropogenic warming. The experts warn that this trend will continue to worsen, increasing the risk of flooding and economic damages.

Rebuilding trust in global climate mitigation scenarios

A new IIASA-led study examines critiques of global climate mitigation scenarios' equity and justice, proposing practical ways to advance fairness in climate pathways. The research synthesizes growing evidence that current scenarios fall short, identifying a roadmap for integrating fairness into future climate futures.

Where did that raindrop come from? Tracing the movement of water molecules using isotopes

A team of researchers at the Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, developed an ensemble technique to improve climate modeling by tracing water molecules' movement. They found a general increase in atmospheric water vapor associated with warming temperatures, linking it to large-scale climate phenomena.

University of Oklahoma researcher awarded funding to uncover secrets of cloud formation

Salesky's research team will address uncertainty in how turbulent processes contribute to cloud formation by using simulations to replicate turbulence and test environmental conditions. The study aims to improve civilian and military weather forecasting models, with significant implications for precipitation and severe weather.

Climate-risk scores shape billion-dollar decisions, and new study says science behind them needs to be more transparent

Climate-risk scores are being used in infrastructure design, housing markets, and public policy, but the devil is in the details. Only 4% of highly cited studies shared their data and code, highlighting a structural barrier to cumulative progress.

Arctic cloud and ice formation affected by Russian river runoff as region studied for first time

A recent study found that organic matter carried from rivers into the Arctic Ocean creates more clouds and keeps the region cooler. Aerosol particles formed by this biological matter act as 'seeds' for cloud formation, increasing their ability to form bright, long-lasting clouds.

Safeguarding the Winter Olympics-Paralympics against climate change

Researchers recommend shifting Olympic and Paralympic Games to earlier dates to protect fairness and safety for athletes. Snowmaking is also seen as a crucial adaptation strategy to ensure the viability of snow sports.

Thin ice may have protected lake water on frozen Mars

A team of researchers from Rice University discovered that lakes on ancient Mars could persist under thin seasonal ice for at least decades, contradicting earlier climate models. The study suggests that surface features shaped by sustained liquid water coexist with the idea that early Mars was too cold to support such conditions.

AMS Science Preview: Volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air

Recent research reveals that volcanic eruptions can cause unpredictable weather patterns, including volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air. The study also found that the Antarctic surface atmosphere has become less stable and more prone to gravity waves since the 1950s.

The Alps to lose a record number of glaciers in the next decade

The Alps are expected to reach a peak loss rate of 2,000-4,000 glaciers per year by 2033-2041, with only 110 glaciers remaining in Central Europe by 2100. Regions like the Rocky Mountains and Andes will also experience significant glacier losses.

Coral reefs have stabilized Earth’s carbon cycle for the past 250 million years

Researchers found that coral reefs governed the pace of climate recovery by tuning the planet's carbon and climate cycles. The study suggests that reefs played a crucial role in stabilizing climate, but modern reef systems are declining due to warming and ocean acidification.

AMS Science Preview: Railways and cyclones; pinned clouds; weather warnings in wartime

Researchers investigate how adjacent cities exacerbate each other's heat island effects. A study also highlights the need for improved hindcasting infrastructure in climate science. Additionally, a campaign monitors pinned clouds over industrial sources of heat and finds that trees are more reliable against heat stress than buildings.

Soil carbon decomposition varies vastly, holding implications for climate models

A new study found that the rate of organic carbon decomposition in soil samples collected across the US differed by up to tenfold, with factors like fungi and iron levels strongly associated with variation. This could improve the accuracy of soil carbon feedback estimates in climate models, leading to more refined projections.

New satellite study reveals a widespread transition zone in the sky, challenging climate models

A new study using CALIOP lidar data found nearly 10% of atmospheric profiles feature ambiguous transition zones between clouds and aerosols. The high frequency of these zones poses a challenge to current climate models, highlighting the need for more sophisticated representations of atmospheric particles.

Fine-tuning a classic climate model yields better ENSO simulations

A team of researchers has developed an improved version of the Zebiak-Cane model by fine-tuning key atmospheric parameters, resulting in more realistic ENSO simulations. The study demonstrates that adjusting heating efficiency, drag coefficient, and frictional coefficient can mitigate biases and improve the model's realism.

The simulated Milky Way: 100 billion stars using 7 million CPU cores

Researchers at RIKEN successfully simulated the Milky Way Galaxy with over 100 billion individual stars, far surpassing previous state-of-the-art models. This achievement demonstrates the power of AI-accelerated simulations in tackling complex multi-scale problems in astrophysics and beyond.

Tiny ponds in the Andes pack a big climate punch, UNC study finds

Researchers found that small mountain ponds in the Andes can release large amounts of greenhouse gases, contradicting past assumptions. The study's findings highlight the importance of studying small aquatic systems and their impact on global carbon balance.

New study shows high-resolution cmip6 models better capture long-term precipitation trends in high mountain Asia

A new study published in Journal of Climate reveals that high-resolution CMIP6 models more accurately simulate long-term summer precipitation trends in High Mountain Asia. The study found that higher resolution improves the simulation by reducing a wet bias, particularly over the southern margin and nearby regions.

Mapping the missing green: An AI framework boosts urban greening in Tokyo

Researchers from Chiba University developed an AI-based spatial framework to identify areas with limited vertical greening, revealing uneven distribution and high-priority zones for improvement. The framework provides a citywide map of vertical greenery, aiming to enhance cooling, biodiversity, and urban resilience.

Deep emission cuts before mid-century decisive to reduce long-term sea-level rise legacy

New research shows that near-term mitigation could spare future generations around 0.6 meters of sea-level rise caused by emissions between 2020 and 2090 following current policies. The study provides a direct link between today's policy choices and sea levels hundreds of years from now.

Democratizing global climate modeling

A new international study proposes a transparent and inclusive research platform to generate and compare Integrated Assessment Model scenarios. This approach would allow researchers from across the world to participate, contributing their expertise to shape the future of climate policy.

Climate whiplash effects due to rapidly intensifying El Niño cycles

A new study reveals that ENSO could intensify rapidly over the coming decades and synchronize with other major climate phenomena, leading to stronger rainfall fluctuations in regions such as Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula. The amplified impacts will necessitate enhanced planning and adaptation strategies.

Addressing inequality in climate research

An international research team has proposed a more open and transparent platform for comparative climate research, allowing researchers from diverse regions to participate. This may lead to more balanced scientific basis for global climate policy, with increased consideration of developing countries' perspectives.

University of Miami scientists launch accessible global climate modeling framework

The new Python-based framework simplifies climate dynamics, allowing students and researchers to explore cutting-edge experiments. It features adjustable atmospheric settings and can simulate real-world influences, making it suitable for classroom exercises and advanced research.

Carbon cycle can plunge Earth into an ice age

A new study suggests that the Earth's carbon cycle can overcorrect and plunge the planet into an ice age if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The researchers found that in a warmer world with enhanced algae growth, the oceans lose oxygen, leading to a feedback loop that consumes more carbon.

Running dry – a new study warns of extreme water scarcity in the coming decades

A new study reveals that global warming is accelerating the risk of multi-year droughts leading to extreme water scarcity. The frequency of Day Zero Droughts will increase sharply over the coming decades, affecting 750 million people globally by the end of this century.

A hard look at geoengineering reveals global risks

UCSB scientists found that cloud seeding could disrupt the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a major climate cycle. In contrast, stratospheric aerosol injection had virtually no effect on ENSO. The study highlights the importance of considering broad consequences before implementing geoengineering proposals.

New climate models to reveal secret life of water

Scientists at Rice University and NSF NCAR are developing a new climate model that can track water's unique fingerprints, providing insights into the water cycle and its impact on climate systems. The project aims to better understand how much rain falls, where moisture comes from, and how it travels through the atmosphere and oceans.

Why the East Antarctic interior is warming faster and earlier than its coastal areas

A 30-year study reveals East Antarctica's interior is warming at a rate of 0.45-0.72°C per decade, faster than global average, driven by changes in the Southern Indian Ocean. This warming process may underestimate future Antarctic ice loss predictions.

UMD developing AI-powered warning system to predict disease tied to extreme weather

The University of Maryland is developing an AI-powered early warning system to help communities prepare for and respond to diarrheal disease risks exacerbated by extreme weather events. The system will provide timely, actionable information to public health agencies and local leaders using integrated weather, health, and demographic data.

Countries’ carbon budget math is broken

A study by Utrecht University researchers found that previous fairness and ambition assessments were biased, rewarding high emitters at the expense of vulnerable ones. The proposed method avoids delaying emission reduction obligations and calculates immediate ambition gaps that can be filled by climate measures and international finance.

Red squirrels facing bright future on Isle of Wight, study finds

Researchers found that the island has enough trees, hedgerows, and seeds for the estimated 3500 red squirrels to thrive and grow. The study also discovered signs of genetic mixing between the east and west populations, suggesting a bright future for the island's squirrel population.

New study confirms red squirrels are resilient to climate change in Europe but underlines need to conserve their habitat

A new study by Bournemouth University confirms that red squirrel populations across Europe are resilient to the effects of climate change, but highlights the need for conservation efforts to protect their habitat. The study found that temperature changes and low rainfall do not directly affect the survivability of red squirrels.

Dinosaur teeth give glimpse of early Earth’s climate

A new method reconstructs carbon dioxide levels and photosynthesis from fossilized tooth enamel, shedding light on the climate of the Mesozoic era. The analysis found that atmospheric CO2 levels were four times higher in the late Jurassic period and three times higher in the late Cretaceous period than they are today.

New study reveals the role of subtle changes of Northern Westerlies in the East Asian monsoon variability

Researchers found that short interstadials trigger a northward leap of the Westerlies, facilitating near-source moisture transport and suppressing δ18O depletion. The study provides new insights into the complex dynamics behind abrupt climate changes.

Scientists use climate data to map, predict amphibian chytrid disease

Researchers created a high-resolution map of Panama showing the movement and intensity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a deadly fungal disease. The data reveals that higher elevations are more hospitable to the fungus, but rainy seasons bring outbreaks in lowlands.

Cosmic dust opens window on ancient atmosphere

Researchers at Göttingen University developed a method to reconstruct the early Earth's atmosphere using fossilized micrometeorites. The study found that intact micrometeorites can preserve reliable traces of oxygen isotopes over millions of years.

Research improves accuracy of climate models – particularly for extreme events

Researchers developed a new machine learning method to improve climate model projections, making them more accurate at both global and regional levels. The new tool addressed challenges in capturing observed patterns in compound extreme events, leading to improved projections of these events.

320 million trees are killed by lightning each year — Considerable biomass loss

Researchers estimate that lightning kills around 320 million trees each year, resulting in significant biomass loss. This equates to an annual emission of 0.77-1.09 billion tons of CO₂, comparable to the emissions from wildfires.

Earth's future climate at 9 km worldwide resolution

A team of scientists has developed a high-resolution climate model that simulates global climate change at 9 km atmospheric and 4-25 km oceanic scales. The model demonstrates superior performance compared to lower-resolution models, providing detailed regional insights into future climate conditions.

Nitrogen may limit natural climate solutions

A global inventory reveals that natural areas have access to about a quarter less nitrogen than previously estimated, which could limit the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. This finding has implications for natural climate solutions, as nitrogen is essential to plant growth.

Sweet discovery: sugars from the salty ocean are responsible for a large part of the ice nuclei in clouds over the remote oceans of the southern hemisphere

Marine microorganisms produce sugar compounds that enter the atmosphere through sea spray, contributing to cloud and precipitation formation. These polysaccharides are found to be the most important ice nuclei in clean air over the oceans around Antarctica.

Old aerial photos give scientists a new tool to predict sea level rise

Researchers at the University of Copenhagen analyzed old aerial photos to better understand mechanisms behind Antarctic ice shelf collapse. The study reveals that rising sea temperatures are a primary driver of collapse, contradicting previous assumptions.

What about tritiated water release from Fukushima? Ocean model simulations provide an objective scientific knowledge on the long-term tritium distribution

Researchers from the University of Tokyo used ocean model simulations to investigate the long-term tritium distribution after Fukushima's treated water release. The study found that tritium concentrations remain very low, with no significant impact on ocean levels.

Restoring kelp forests by culling sea urchins makes financial and ecological sense: study

A new study led by RMIT University found that restoring southern Australian reefs from urchin barrens is feasible and beneficial for improved water quality, fisheries, and carbon sequestration. Economic modelling showed an AU$50 million investment would return up to AU$92 million in economic benefits.

Study challenges climate change's link to our wild winter jet stream

Researchers found several volatile phases in the polar jet stream over the past 125 years that predate significant climate change effects. The study suggests that natural fluctuations may be driving recent erratic behavior of the jet stream, rather than climate change.

Same ecosystem, different fix

A new study by the University of Göttingen and Freie Universität Berlin found that Mediterranean-type regions require tailored restoration methods due to varying soil and climate conditions. The research suggests that compromises are often needed, and what works best depends on local goals and conditions.

The atmosphere’s growing thirst is making droughts worse, even where it rains

A new study finds that increasing atmospheric evaporative demand is making droughts 40% more severe globally over the past 40 years. As the atmosphere warms, air can hold more moisture, leading to increased water demand and pulling more water from soils, rivers, and plants.

Atlantic ocean current unlikely to collapse with climate change

A new study from Caltech finds that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, commonly referred to as the AMOC, will weaken by around 18 to 43 percent at the end of the 21st century. This represents a limited decline, rather than substantial weakening as previously predicted, addressing a long-standing uncertainty in climate sci...

Save twice the ice by limiting global warming

A new study finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C could save twice as much glacier ice as current policies, which project an average of +2.7°C. This would mitigate 10cm of sea-level rise and preserve up to 39% of global glacier mass.

Risking planetary stability

Nico Wunderling joins the Center for Critical Computational Studies (C3S) to investigate global warming's impact on planetary stability. He focuses on the Amazon rainforest and its biodiversity under climate change pressures.