Articles tagged with Earthquake Forecasting
Geologists created a computer model that helps understand Earth's interior and predicts tectonic activity, including earthquakes and volcanoes. The team found that the subducting slab is the dominant driving force behind mantle deformation.
Researchers at Nagoya University and their colleagues studied historical seismic events to shed light on the mechanisms behind earthquakes at a plate boundary. They found that stronger earthquakes involved ruptures at different sites, providing new insights into risk prediction tools for assessing earthquake likelihood and intensity.
A new study reveals that faults like the San Andreas Fault can experience prolonged 'afterslip' for six to twelve years after an earthquake, unlike a similar quake in Napa, California, which showed less afterslip. This variation makes it harder to predict post-earthquake damage and infrastructure repair needs.
Researchers estimate a 43% probability of at least one magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquake in the Wasatch Front region by 2070. The study, published in 2016, predicts that 22 large earthquakes have ruptured parts of the fault zone between Nephi and Brigham City over the past 6000 years.
A new research project aims to explore the mechanisms causing earthquakes in the lower crust, accounting for 30% of intracontinental seismic activity. By combining geological and satellite observations with laboratory work, scientists hope to increase knowledge of geological processes and mitigate the dangers posed by such activity.
The 2017 seismic hazard model forecasts lower damaging ground shaking levels in the central and eastern U.S., but Oklahoma and southern Kansas still face a significant risk of induced earthquake damage. For over 3 million people, the chance of damage is similar to natural earthquakes in high-hazard areas of California.
Scientists studied ageing phenomenon at nanoscale, finding that friction force doubles with time and load increase. This discovery supports fundamental theory describing ageing mechanism, shedding light on fault stability and earthquake prediction.
Scientists have developed a new modification to the Gutenberg-Richter law to better predict large earthquakes. This improved model takes into account the finite size of the Earth and provides more accurate estimates of seismic risk. The researchers hope their findings will be useful in evaluating economic losses from potential disasters.
Scientists discovered that large bumps and mounds on the sea floor can cause sudden slip of tectonic plates, triggering giant earthquakes. The research, published in Nature Geoscience, could lead to more accurate models for forecasting where megathrust earthquakes are likely to occur.
The rate of manmade, induced earthquakes in Oklahoma is expected to decline due to reduced wastewater injection, according to Stanford scientists. The probability of damaging earthquakes will remain elevated for several years.
Researchers found that very large earthquakes occur on flat fault areas, suggesting a link between fault curvature and megaquake risk. The study's findings support the idea that curvy faults are less likely to experience massive earthquakes.
Scientists developed a method to estimate weakness in the Earth's outer layers, allowing for more accurate predictions of volcanic activity and earthquakes. The new model uses surface-based electromagnetic imaging techniques to estimate viscosity variations, which can be used to understand processes driving tectonic plate deformation.
A new study by Scripps Institution of Oceanography has discovered that large earthquakes on one fault can trigger large aftershocks on separate faults within minutes. This finding has significant implications for earthquake-prone regions like California, where complex fault systems may lead to mega-earthquakes.
A team of scientists has discovered that dormant volcanoes exhibit predictable quiet periods immediately before eruptions. Longer quiet periods indicate a bigger eruption. This discovery allows for the forecasting of impending eruptions and could revolutionize volcanic monitoring.
A University of Montana researcher has contributed to a groundbreaking study on the complexity of earthquakes and their forecastability. The research found that smaller and larger quakes contribute to the movement of the Himalayas, increasing the frequency but reducing the impact of earthquakes in the region.
Researchers examine factors influencing induced earthquake locations and strengths in central US and western Canada. The USGS report estimates 7 million people live in areas affected by induced seismicity.
A recent NTU EOS study found a pattern to slow fault movements that may precede large earthquakes. This discovery could improve seismic monitoring and forecast large earthquakes in Southeast Asia.
A new study suggests that real-time GPS data can be used to estimate how an earthquake deforms the sea floor, cutting tsunami warning times by nearly 20 minutes. This allows for more accurate warnings to be issued within two to three minutes, potentially saving lives.
Researchers found that small faults can link together along a 'keystone' fault, triggering larger earthquakes. The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake showed this pattern, with seven smaller faults activated by the breaking of a central stone-like fault.
A team of researchers found that an earthquake initiating on one thrust fault can spread 10 times farther to a second nearby fault, vastly expanding the possible range of 'earthquake doublets.' This could lead to twice as much devastation in areas like Los Angeles, where multiple thrust faults are close together.
Geologists from Brown University have discovered that water escaping from mineral lawsonite at high temperatures and pressures makes it prone to brittle failure, triggering earthquakes. This explains why certain quakes occur in cold subduction zones where lawsonite forms, but not in hot zones.
Scholz has made significant contributions to seismology, bridging laboratory studies of rock mechanics with fundamental research on crustal-scale deformation. He has developed influential models for earthquake prediction and helped create regional seismic hazard maps.
Researchers found that areas with previous strong earthquakes were more likely to produce landslides after a second earthquake hit. The study's findings could lead to improved predictive models considering historical occurrences of past earthquakes.
Researchers have taken a closer look at the geology deep beneath the Tibetan Plateau using gravity data captured by satellite. The analysis offers some of the clearest views ever obtained of rock moving up to 50 miles below the plateau, revealing a complex interplay of wavy patterns at the boundary between the crust and mantle.
A new study published in Nature Geoscience reveals that a universal sliding mechanism operates for earthquakes of all depths. The research, led by UC Riverside geologists, suggests that both shallow and deep earthquakes share the same physics once started.
Researchers have uncovered evidence of ancient earthquakes on New Zealand's southern Hikurangi margin, suggesting shorter time intervals between large quakes than previously thought. The findings confirm a previously assumed risk and may help better understand earthquake hazards in the region.
Research at ETH Zurich reveals that wider seismogenic zones increase the probability of a supercycle occurring, characterized by several large earthquakes and eventually a giant earthquake. The study proposes a new explanation for the gradual rupture phenomenon, suggesting that physical stresses build up rapidly at the edges of the zone.
A University of South Florida-led team has discovered that subtle shifts in the earth's offshore plates can predict the size of future disasters. The researchers used high precision GPS to measure slight shifts on a fault line in Costa Rica, finding that slow slip events can release stress and strain before major earthquakes and tsunamis.
A new study published in the journal Geology challenges traditional views on tectonics by showing that Pacific plate deforms and contracts horizontally due to cooling. The research suggests a significant shortening of the oceanic plates, which can lead to intraplate earthquakes.
Experts argue that OEF is essential for reducing earthquake risk by providing authoritative information to policymakers and the public. Key findings include the potential for significant changes in earthquake probabilities over time, influenced by local seismic activity.
A new technique developed by Stanford scientists uses weak ocean vibrations to predict the ground movement and shaking hazard from real quakes. The approach was used to confirm a prediction that Los Angeles will experience stronger-than-expected ground movement if a major quake occurs south of the city.
New research reveals that Vancouver's Georgia basin amplifies seismic waves, increasing ground motion in the area. This finding poses a significant risk to tall buildings and long-period structures, such as bridges and pipelines, which may experience greater shaking than previously thought.
Researchers have developed a new global map to predict giant earthquakes at subduction zones, including the Australian region. The study identified several regions capable of producing massive earthquakes, while others are not predicted to experience such events.
A $451,000 US grant will fund research on the Chaman Fault in Western Pakistan to improve earthquake prediction and mitigation. The study aims to determine fault movement speed and activity levels to reduce casualties and economic losses.
Researchers at Penn State have found a precursor signal to slow earthquakes, which can potentially foretell larger events. By studying the mechanisms behind slow earthquakes, they identified a transition in fault zone properties that supports slower velocities.
A team of seismologists has discovered that slow earthquakes, which last minutes rather than seconds, are linked to the type of rock in faults. Laboratory experiments using natural samples from Japan found that clay minerals play a key role in this slip behavior, influencing how rocks react to shear.
Researchers are exploring new methods for detecting transient seismic activity, such as slow slip earthquakes, using GPS network data. The study aims to improve the accuracy of forecasting likely seismic activity by accurately detecting and assessing these low-frequency signals.
Researchers have revised the history of large earthquakes in the area, showing that the Salt Lake City segment has been more active than previously thought. The study contributes to forecasting probabilities for future earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region.
Randall White, a renowned volcano seismologist, has been recognized by the Seismological Society of America (SSA) for his dedication to public service and seismic forecasting. He has saved countless lives through his work in predicting volcanic eruptions, sharing his techniques with international partners.
Researchers found that 87% of large (8.6 magnitude or higher) earthquakes are associated with intersection regions between oceanic fracture zones and subduction zones. This connection is less striking for smaller earthquakes, which are more common.
Scientists at Stanford University have identified segments of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault that could lead to massive earthquakes in the Himalayas. Meanwhile, researchers are studying small tremors in the Cascadia subduction zone to improve earthquake prediction and mitigation strategies for the Pacific Northwest.
Researchers have discovered six major earthquakes above 7 magnitude on the Alhama de Murcia fault, revealing 'convincing evidence' of higher maximum earthquake magnitudes than previously thought. The study provides a detailed paleoseismic record of the fault's activity over hundreds of thousands of years.
Researchers found that earthquakes generate most of their sound by pumping the atmosphere like a loudspeaker. This discovery has significant implications for assessing damage in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake, as infrasound can reveal important details about ground shaking.
A new study by USGS researchers Tom Parsons and Eric Geist analyzed the timing of world's largest earthquakes over 100 years, finding intervals between quakes similar to those expected from a random process. This suggests that global great earthquakes are occurring at random, rather than triggering each other.
A new study by University of Nevada, Reno's Glenn Biasi and colleagues at GNS Science in New Zealand found that the Alpine Fault has been experiencing relatively regular magnitude 8 earthquakes for at least 8,000 years. This extends the known seismic record from 1000 years ago to 8,000 years ago.
Researchers have made significant breakthroughs in understanding volcanic plumbing systems, which could lead to improved predictions of eruptions. The team's study reveals that ground uplift occurred four months before an eruption due to increased pressure in one of the underground chambers.
The article explores the latest advances in earthquake forecasting, including probabilistic methods and visualization techniques. Despite limitations, these approaches provide valuable information for predicting earthquakes and can help reduce uncertainty.
Researchers are using data from a Utah mountainous region to better understand the effects of topography on earthquake ground motions and seismic risk. The project aims to develop design-ready tools to account for these effects, potentially leading to modified building codes.
Researchers develop three-dimensional model to explain Andes formation, predicting earthquakes and mountain range evolution. The new approach improves predictive power, allowing scientists to forecast tectonic plate behavior.
UC Davis researchers compare seven different earthquake forecasts to identify the most accurate methods for predicting earthquake locations. The study finds that all seven forecasts showed some utility in forecasting earthquake locations, with the UC Davis group's forecast being the most accurate.
Geophysicists at UC Riverside are developing large-scale computer simulations to investigate earthquake fault systems. The simulations aim to provide abundant data for analyzing plate motion and earthquake events over 10,000 years.
A new seismology tip sheet provides critical information on building in hazardous areas near strike-slip faults, as well as tools for predicting quake shaking in Southern California. Researchers also investigated the impact of wind farms on seismic data collection, finding that nearby turbines can cause 'seismic noise'.
A new tool, developed by Prof. Shmuel Marco, can analyze wave patterns in sediment to understand past earthquake intensity. The 'fossil seismograph' helps geophysicists predict future earthquakes in areas with bodies of water.
Researchers at Yale University and the University of British Columbia describe a model explaining volcanic warning tremors that may help forecast deadly eruptions. The 'magma wagging' theory suggests similar frequencies in tremors across different volcanoes due to shared interaction factors.
Researchers at University of British Columbia develop a model explaining long-lived volcanic earthquakes before and during eruptions. The 'oscillating plug' of magma causes tremors, which can be used to predict explosive eruptions.
Researchers from Universidad Pablo de Olavide and Universidad de Sevilla have found patterns of behavior before an earthquake occur on the Iberian peninsula. The team used clustering techniques to forecast medium-large seismic movements with a sensitivity rate of 90%.
Researchers at Hebrew University have discovered that basic assumptions about friction are wrong, providing a new means for replicating how earth ruptures develop and possibly enabling prediction of severe earthquakes. The findings offer unprecedented predictive power, estimating both rupture mode and extent of future earthquakes.
The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a magnitude 7.9 rupture, resulted in over 80,000 fatalities and left four million homeless. The event showcased China's capability to demonstrate its earthquake science program to the global community.
Research reveals a causal relationship between rainfall and earthquakes, with variations in rainfall affecting pore-fluid pressure at depth and triggering earthquakes. Ground motion patterns in the Santa Clara Valley are also studied, revealing complex geological structures that influence seismic wave propagation and amplification.
Scientists discovered a rare 'triggered doublet' event where two great earthquakes occurred seconds apart on different faults. The initial earthquake triggered another massive event with a total magnitude of 8.0, causing devastating tsunamis that killed 192 people.