A new study by ISGlobal estimates that very strong El Niño episodes are associated with 107,035 additional heat-related deaths and 112,681 fewer cold-related deaths per year compared to neutral conditions. This shift towards warmer temperatures during El Niño has significant implications for global health.
Researchers at the University of Melbourne found that knowing the Pacific Ocean's state at the beginning of a forecast can provide valuable clues about a forecast's reliability one year later. Forecasts initiated during La Niña conditions consistently performed well, while those starting from neutral conditions were less reliable.
A new study reveals how marine heatwaves disrupt humpback whales' metabolism, nutrient use, and reproductive success. Researchers analyzed biochemical records in baleen to understand the physiological mechanisms behind population declines, and found that whales 'power down' during heatwaves, making early pregnancy harder to maintain.
A new study finds that a warmer future may lead to stronger storms approaching Hawaiʻi, even as the total number of storms remains uncertain. The study also reveals changes in the relationship between El Niño and La Niña and Hawaiʻi's tropical cyclone risk.
A new study found that off-equatorial Pacific warming halted La Niña development by inducing equatorial westerly wind anomalies, breaking the Bjerknes feedback. Climate models have been improved by refining ensemble forecasting frameworks to fully integrate off-equatorial ocean signals.
Climate researchers have discovered a significant increase in neighborhood-level hurricane warnings, widespread wildfires in the US, and unprecedented changes in Earth's energy budget. These findings suggest that greenhouse gases are driving these trends, with smoke and fire-related carbon emissions rising due to increased aridity.
The 36th annual State of the Climate report reveals record highs in greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea level, and ocean heat content. Greenhouse gas concentrations reached a 53% increase from preindustrial levels, with fossil fuel emissions reaching a record high in 2025.
New studies reveal potential for 30-day forecast accuracy boosts using machine learning and explore the impact of vegetation on ocean currents during the Little Ice Age. Researchers also find that La Niña events can slow global warming by amplifying each other's cooling effects.
A study found that the spring SAM underwent a marked structural shift around 1998, strengthening its delayed influence on Antarctic summer sea ice. This shift led to enhanced ice-loss processes, including increased air-sea heat exchange and ocean warming in the Weddell Sea.
Researchers found that climate variability in the North Atlantic-European region and tropical Indo-Pacific regions interact to intensify Japanese winters. This interaction amplifies jet stream disturbances, resulting in colder and more severe conditions.
Multi-year La Niña events are becoming more common due to two distinct pathways that can lead to long-lasting cooling in the Pacific Ocean. The study found that a pattern of anomalous sea surface temperatures south of the equator, known as the South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM), can sustain La Niña by slowing its natural decay.
Researchers have developed a simple yet effective ocean-based model that can predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months in advance using only surface temperature and height observations. The model leverages two core climate memories, Wyrtki memory and Hasselmann memory, to achieve forecast skill comparable to more complex models.
Scientists discovered that deep-water coral ecosystems in the Galápagos region vanished for over 1,000 years due to prolonged La Niña-like conditions. The study found that these ecosystems may be more susceptible to climate change than previously thought, with significant implications for conservation efforts.
Researchers have shown that ocean temperature patterns limit the global spread of droughts, with synchronised droughts affecting only 1.8% to 6.5% of global land. The study identified 'drought hubs' in regions like Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
A new study reveals that ENSO could intensify rapidly over the coming decades and synchronize with other major climate phenomena, leading to stronger rainfall fluctuations in regions such as Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula. The amplified impacts will necessitate enhanced planning and adaptation strategies.
UCSB scientists found that cloud seeding could disrupt the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a major climate cycle. In contrast, stratospheric aerosol injection had virtually no effect on ENSO. The study highlights the importance of considering broad consequences before implementing geoengineering proposals.
The State of the Climate report reveals record-high greenhouse gas concentrations, with CO2 levels reaching 422.8 parts per million, a 52% increase from pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures also reached a new high, with annual growth increasing to 2.4 ppm yr−1.
Research explores changes in global precipitation patterns and how they relate to climate change. Bird nests are found to predict rainfall in rural India, while heat stress is increasing in the southeastern US, particularly at night. European 'bomb' storms may intensify due to warming climate.
A new conceptual model, XRO, significantly improves predictive skill of ENSO events at over one year in advance, offering a transparent view into the mechanisms of equatorial Pacific recharge-discharge physics. This improves conventional climate model forecasting and provides robust quantification of extratropical Pacific, tropical Ind...
Arctic sea ice is expected to lose mass in the coming decade due to dominant natural climate patterns. Exposure to extreme temperatures, particularly heat, may lead to adverse birth outcomes in China. Researchers also found that ocean warming intensifies typhoons, but moderation comes from atmospheric temperature and humidity changes.
A new study found that multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, with warming in the western Pacific Ocean being a key factor. The study suggests that long-lasting La Niñas will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe.
A new study reveals that the Pacific Walker Circulation has changed its behavior over the industrial era, with volcanic eruptions causing temporary weakening of the circulation. This could lead to more frequent multi-year La Niña or El Niño events, exacerbating climate-related risks.
Researchers predict a significant increase in projected frequency of multiyear La Niña events under global warming. This is due to enhanced tropical-subtropical interaction and Pacific mean-state warming patterns.
A team of researchers studied the upcoming 2022-2023 winter weather in Eurasia, predicting potential below-normal temperatures and severe snowfalls. The study used four climate models to forecast surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies, with some results suggesting a possibility of cold snaps despite warmer overall conditions.
Researchers at Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, predict a third-year La Niña event, the first since 1998-2001. This event may bring intense cold surges in Eurasia and more extreme weather patterns.
A new study suggests that climate change is favoring La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The researchers found that temperature patterns at the ocean's surface have changed, with the Pacific off South America cooling and the western Pacific warming more than elsewhere. This has led to a strengthened temperature difference between the ...
A study analyzing 9,000 years of Earth's history found that strong El Niño events intensified over time but with a small change due to global warming. Researchers used ancient coral data and powerful supercomputers to conduct their research, calling for further investigations into earlier climate periods.
Research by Prof. Lifang Sheng and team reveals the northward movement of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) causes heavy autumn rainfall in the northern South China Sea. The ITCZ's shift north is triggered by abnormal equatorial easterlies, which strengthen during La Niña years.
A new study simulates global warming at unprecedented resolution, revealing that increasing CO2 concentrations will weaken the intensity of the ENSO temperature cycle. This could lead to fewer El Niño and La Niña events, with potential implications for rainfall extremes.
A new study finds a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The researchers applied a 22-year solar clock to find this elusive correlation, which could improve predictability of major El Nino and La Nina events.
Researchers analyzed temperatures from Dec. 1, 2020, to mid-January 2021, finding that warming in the Arctic and cooling in the tropical Pacific contributed to record-breaking low temperatures across 58 cities in China. The synergistic effect intensified cold air intrusions into mid-high latitudes, influencing extreme cold conditions.
A new study found that accurately simulating ocean current variations during El Niño events is crucial for reducing climate prediction uncertainty. When models simulate these processes correctly, they show increased asymmetry between El Niño and La Niú, similar to natural climate swings.
A new study by USC researchers found that El Niño cycles are an unreliable predictor of droughts in the American West. Instead, Earth's dynamic atmosphere plays a significant role in wet and dry cycles, making drought forecasting challenging.
Scientists analyzed atmospheric and oceanic factors behind the 2017/18 La Niña event's cooling. Wind stress and subsurface cold water played significant roles in the event's second-year cooling, with differences observed from previous events.
A study by Prof. Renhe Zhang and colleagues found that El Niño decays faster than La Niña due to asymmetrical zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific. The negative sea surface temperature anomaly associated with La Niña events persists for more than a year, resulting in a longer duration.
A new study finds that strong Indian monsoons can push Atlantic Ocean hurricanes westward, increasing the likelihood they'll make landfall in the Americas. This newly-discovered relationship could help scientists better predict hurricane paths, especially during late summer months.
Researchers at Pohang University of Science and Technology have found a way to predict El Niño conditions up to 17 months in advance. Changes in Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures can trigger La Niña, which affects global weather patterns.
Future El Niño and La Niña events are expected to cause more intense temperature and precipitation changes, including increased wildfire risk in the Southwest US. Climate model simulations suggest that these events will become even cooler and wetter in California, exacerbating flood risks.
A new study reveals that El Niño diversity arises from the interaction between Eastern and Central Pacific oscillations, leading to irregular occurrence and complex behavior. This understanding is crucial for predicting El Niño events accurately in a warming world.
A recent study reveals that seven of eight North China PSSD events occurred when La Niña transited to El Niño with a negative NPO phase in preceding winter. This study demonstrates that ENSO phase transition from La Niña to El Niño is one of the important precursors of North China PSSD.
A new study suggests that El Nino frequency is 300 percent more frequent in positive PDO phases and 58 percent less in negative phases. This finding could improve El Nino predictions by considering off-equatorial climate patterns.
Scientists improve drought prediction for La Niña events with two new studies, predicting a second year of drought due to the current La Niña. The research found that La Niña's impact on atmospheric circulation and southern U.S. drought becomes stronger in the second year.
The Newport Line, a decades-long ocean monitoring program off the Pacific Northwest coast, has been recognized for its significant contributions to marine science. The PICES Ocean Monitoring Service Award acknowledges the program's value in understanding climate patterns, salmon returns, and ocean currents.
Researchers studied SCSSM onset from 1997 to 2014, identifying normal, intermittent, and delayed onset types. Key factors in the normal onset type include positive SST gradients in the northern Indian Ocean and local SST warming in the SCS. The study found that zonal thermal contrast modulates monsoon onset in La Niña years.
Researchers at the University of Exeter have developed a system to predict excess monsoon rainfall or drought in central India, which can impact the national and global economy. This prediction tool has the potential to improve decision-making for policymakers and communities, ultimately mitigating the effects of extreme weather events.
NASA has visualized rainfall data to show the changes in US precipitation during El Niño, with areas like California and East Coast experiencing wet conditions. However, other parts of the country faced droughts and floods due to shifts in precipitation patterns.
Recent La Niña years have brought less-than-normal rainfall to Hawai'i, contrary to past trends. The shift in weather patterns has important implications for agriculture and water resource management.
A multi-agency study found that severe El Niño and La Niña events will cause an increase in storm events leading to extreme coastal flooding and erosion across the Pacific. The research analyzed data from 48 beaches across three continents, suggesting the predicted increase will exacerbate coastal erosion irrespective of sea level rise.
A multi-agency study found that severe El Niño and La Niña events will cause an increase in storm events leading to extreme coastal flooding and erosion. The research analyzed coastal data from across the Pacific Ocean basin and determined that all Pacific regions were affected during either an El Niño or La Niña year.
A new study reveals that El Niño and La Niña conditions can predict the frequency of tornadoes and hail storms in susceptible regions of the United States. Moderate La Niña events lead to more tornadoes and hail storms, while El Niño suppresses both types of storms.
Research shows global warming could double the frequency of extreme La Niúna events, leading to increased droughts and floods globally. This could also lead to weather patterns switching between extremes of wet and dry, with profound socio-economic consequences.
A new study reveals that traditional and central Pacific El Niño events have distinct effects on global surface temperatures. Global temperatures were anomalously warm during traditional El Niño events but not during central Pacific events, which occur more frequently now.
Research suggests that external changes can impact the strength and timing of El Niño events. Over 4,300 years, the ENSO cycle has changed due to natural influences on the Earth's climate, such as variations in its orbit around the sun.
Researchers at University of Missouri-Columbia discovered that the region's record-warm February and March were linked to a similar La Niña climate pattern in 1889. This finding could help scientists develop more accurate weather prediction models by understanding the variability within climate patterns.
A new study finds that La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific precede four major flu pandemics, including 1918, 1957, 1968 and 2009. The researchers theorize that altered bird migration patterns promote genetic reassortment of the influenza virus.
NASA's new satellite data confirms a strong La Niña event in the eastern Pacific, with record-breaking rainfall in Australia and significant impacts on global climate. The La Niña effect is being felt worldwide, influencing ocean currents and heat storage.
Research reveals subtle links between solar cycles, stratospheres, and tropical Pacific Oceans, driving periodic weather patterns globally. The study predicts the intensity of climate phenomena like Indian monsoon and tropical Pacific rainfall years in advance.
New research by NCAR shows a key link between the solar cycle and global climate, with maximum solar activity impacting Earth similarly to La Nina and El Nino events. The study may pave the way toward better predictions of temperature and precipitation patterns.
Research by NSF-funded scientists reveals a scientifically feasible link between the 11-year solar cycle and ENSO, influencing climate variability globally. The study suggests that maximum solar activity can drive La Niña-like events with similar impacts on global temperature and precipitation patterns.
A new study suggests that a changing form of El Niño could result in a greater number of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean. This 'El Niño Modoki' type forms in the Central Pacific, leading to increased storm frequency and potential for landfall along the Gulf coast and Central America.