WASHINGTON, D.C.—Most of nine forecast models developed by political scientists predict a victory for Senator Barack Obama over Senator John McCain in the two-party contest for the popular vote in the 2008 presidential election. Obama is predicted to win an average of 52% of the vote with an 80% probability that he will gain more than half the total two-party popular vote.
Six out of the nine presidential election forecasts predict an Obama victory with popular vote totals ranging from 50.1% to 58.2%, while two predict a race too close to call and one predicts a narrow McCain victory. All of the predictions appear in an election-themed symposium in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association (APSA). The forecasts, published in advance of presidential and mid-term elections, are available online at: https://www.apsanet.org/content_58382.cfm .
The forecasts are based on different combinations of statistical and historical data and differ in their complexity and how far in advance their predictions were made. The earliest forecast was made 294 days in advance while the latest was made 60 days before the election; however, all were made before the Wall Street financial crisis of the past few weeks. Together these forecasts use a range of approaches and indicators that are critical to understanding national electoral processes and the dynamics at work in U.S. presidential elections. Brief summaries of each are provided below:
The 2008 presidential election is taking place in an extraordinary environment. The open-seat nature of the contest, the implications of President Bush's low approval ratings, Senator Obama's decision to forego public financing of his campaign, the effect of race on a contest featuring the first black candidate of a major party in U.S. history, the relative levels of party unity, and the impact of the Wall Street meltdown after these forecasts were produced all combine to make the outcome of the 2008 election unusually difficult to predict. Nevertheless, more of the forecasts predict an Obama victory than not, as the "median of these nine forecasts indicates that Senator McCain will receive 48% of the two-party popular vote," concludes symposium editor James Campbell.
The American Political Science Association (est. 1903) is the leading professional organization for the study of politics and has over 14,000 members in 80 countries. For more news and information about political science research visit the APSA media website, www.politicalsciencenews.org .