Implementing a federal nicotine reduction strategy may prevent millions of premature deaths, boost productivity, and significantly close smoking disparity gaps for individuals with major depression, according to Rutgers Health researchers.
Their study , published in the journal Tobacco Control , evaluated the potential impact of the Food and Drug Administration’s proposed product standard to cap nicotine in combusted tobacco products at minimally or nonaddictive levels. Cigarettes are harmful to health, but nicotine is the primary addictive agent that gets people hooked on smoking and makes it hard to quit. A cigarette on average has 10 to 14 milligrams of nicotine. The FDA proposed capping it at 0.7 milligrams.
Using a simulation model – a computer forecasting method – researchers at the Rutgers Institute for Nicotine and Tobacco Studies and the Rutgers School of Public Health modeled long-term health and financial impacts on the U.S. population through 2100. The study focused on how this policy could affect individuals living with major depression, a vulnerable group that smokes at disproportionately higher rates than the general public.
“Tobacco use heavily impacts vulnerable groups,” said Sarah Skolnick, a postdoctoral associate at the Rutgers Institute for Nicotine and Tobacco Studies. “The model shows that a nicotine reduction policy would directly reduce tobacco-related health disparities, specifically protecting individuals suffering from major depression. We were particularly interested in this impact on the population with major depression, because we know that depression can increase smoking, and smoking can, in turn, increase depression.”
The study enabled researchers to represent a complex system, capturing current population dynamics and testing various scenarios.
“The simulation begins with individuals born without major depression or any smoking experience,” explained Jamie Tam , an associate professor at Rutgers School of Public Health and the institute. “Then as the simulation progresses, it tracks how people transition into various health states, such as taking up smoking, starting to vape, doing both, or developing depression.”
The findings were scaled to represent health and economic costs for the United States population, using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health .
The researchers found that implementing this policy could drive smoking rates below 1% for all population groups by the year 2040, nearly eliminating smoking for people both with and without major depression. By reducing tobacco use, the model projected that the policy could prevent 1.6 million premature deaths and 8 million people from developing major depression by 2100.
Under the policy, the model also projected that worker productivity could increase by $298 billion and the economy could realize a $1.3 trillion increase in consumer spending. “When people die early because of smoking, we lose their contributions to society as consumers and as members of the working population,” Tam adds. “Reducing smoking through nicotine reduction would help people live longer, healthier lives, and allow them to continue contributing to our economy.”
While a federal mandate on nicotine levels remains uncertain, the researchers said state and local governments have the power to act now through sales restrictions , similar to flavor restrictions.
“Individual states do not have to wait,” Skolnick said. “They can independently implement nicotine reduction policies today to protect their residents.”
The results from this study can be explored through the Tobacco Control Policy Tool , an online interactive interface developed by the study team.”
Funding for this study was provided by the National Institutes of Health (NIH)’s National Institute on Drug Abuse, under award number K01DA056424. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
Computational simulation/modeling
People
15-Jul-2026