An analysis of terrorist attacks in the Middle East and Africa suggests that one attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent attack by the same group occurring within 20 km and 4-10 weeks of the first, whereas the likelihood of a group attacking in response to another group's attack depends upon whether the 2 groups are locally in conflict or aligned; terror attacks and state intervention appeared to mutually reinforce each other, according to the authors.
Article #19-04418: "Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents," by Yao-Li Chuang, Noam Ben-Asher, and Maria R. D'Orsogna.
MEDIA CONTACT: Maria R. D'Orsogna, California State University, Northridge, CA; tel: 310-570-5591; e-mail: dorsogna@csun.edu
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences