Washington, DC / New Delhi, India – Researchers at CDDEP recently published Timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission and their effects on mobility: a cross-country analysis where they analyzed the factors associated with delay in the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and their effects on population mobility.
As of July 27th, 2021, COVID-19 has caused over 4 million deaths and infected an estimated 194 million people globally. Multiple safe and effective vaccines to combat COVID-19 have been produced in record time. Although vaccination rollouts have been impressive in several countries, vaccine hesitancy, inadequate vaccine supply, and delivery, and new COVID-19 strains for which current vaccines may be ineffective, remain significant challenges and underscore the continued importance of NPIs. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that timely government response is critical to curbing transmission, reducing mortality, and preventing health systems from being overwhelmed.
NPIs in combination with widespread testing, case detection, contact tracing, and enforcement of quarantine are critical where there is widespread community transmission. The effectiveness of NPIs is a function of when they are implemented, with earlier implementation being more successful in reducing transmission. However, countries may choose to delay implementation to minimize the economic and social costs of lockdowns or even political costs. A lack of knowledge about fundamental disease characteristics in the early stages of a pandemic—as with COVID-19—can also delay the most appropriate response.
It is important to understand the decision-making process for NPIs to improve resource allocation and create incentives for timely NPI implementation in future pandemics. Although many predictive mathematical models have simulated the effect of NPIs on COVID-19, there is limited evidence on the actual effect of these interventions globally and the decision models that influenced their implementation.
The paper examined country-level health systems capacity, epidemiological, and socioeconomic characteristics associated with delay in the implementation of three NPIs: national school closure, global travel ban, and country-wide lockdowns, during the period January 1st, 2020, to April 29th, 2020, and the effect of these NPIs on population mobility. Countries that had implemented NPIs within 30 or 45 days since first case detection, as well as countries in which 30 or 45 days had passed since first case detection were considered. Countries with larger populations and better health preparedness measures had greater delays in implementation. Countries with greater population density, higher income, more democratic political systems, and later arrival of first cases were more likely to implement NPIs within 30 or 45 days of first case detection. Implementation of lockdowns significantly reduced physical mobility. Mobility was further reduced when lockdowns were enforced with curfews or fines, or when they were more strictly defined. National school closures did not significantly change mobility.
According to the lead author of the study, Amit Summan, “Although country-level NPI implementation decisions are based on a complex cost-benefit calculation under information constraints, during pandemics such as COVID-19 their implementation is a global public good. It is important to consider what constraints countries face and how resources can be better allocated to improve timely implementation of these measures. We provide evidence that these lockdowns, especially those backed by curfews and fines, can reduce physical mobility which may reduce transmission in the early stages of a pandemic. Future research should analyze the economic and social costs of these measures, and how different variations of these measures can maximize reduction in disease transmission while minimizing costs.”
Timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission and their effects on mobility: a cross-country analysis is published in The European Journal of Health Economics and is available for download here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10198-021-01355-4
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About the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy Inc.
The Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy Inc. (CDDEP) produces independent, multidisciplinary research to advance the health and wellbeing of human populations around the world. CDDEP projects are global in scope, spanning Africa, Asia, and North America and include scientific studies and policy engagement. The CDDEP team is experienced in addressing country-specific and regional issues, as well as global challenges, such as antibiotic resistance and pandemic influenza. CDDEP research is notable for innovative approaches to design and analysis, which are shared widely through publications, presentations and web-based programs. CDDEP has offices in Washington, D.C. and New Delhi and relies on a distinguished team of scientists, public health experts and economists
The European Journal of Health Economics
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-021-01355-4
Timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission and their effects on mobility: a cross-country analysis