According to models of dengue transmission in Latin America under various global warming scenarios, limiting global mean temperatures to 2°C above pre-industrial levels could prevent approximately 2.8 million dengue cases in Latin America per year by the end of the century, compared with a business-as-usual scenario, in which global mean temperatures increase to 3.7°C by the year 2100; limiting temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels could prevent an additional 0.5 million cases per year, according to the authors.
Article #17-18945: "Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America," by Felipe J. Colón-González et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Felipe J. Colón-González, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UNITED KINGDOM; tel: +44-1603591375, +44-7539-731470; e-mail: < f.colon@uea.ac.uk >
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences