Key Takeaways
WASHINGTON (September 25, 2026) — The United States will be short nearly 28,000 surgeons by 2038, according to the first unified assessment of the country’s surgical workforce.
The analysis found the surgeon workforce will meet just 84.3% of the country’s need, with the greatest shortfalls in vascular surgery, ophthalmology, thoracic surgery, and plastic surgery, and gaps projected to be worse in rural areas. Concerns about a physician shortage aren’t new, but previous estimates have focused on one or a handful of specialties, leaving no unified picture of how many surgeons the country will need, or where.
The research will be presented at the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026 in Washington, Sept. 26-29, where thousands of surgeons will convene to advance surgical quality, patient safety, and access to care.
“Studies usually look at one specialty at a time, so a shortage looks like that specialty’s problem,” said Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, BA, a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, and lead author on the study. “When you put all 10 specialties together, you can see supply is projected to fall while demand keeps rising, and that the gaps are worse in rural areas. The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography, not incremental.”
In this study, researchers used the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM), a federal model from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and analyzed supply and demand across 10 surgical specialties from 2023 to 2038. They included ophthalmology, plastic surgery, vascular surgery, urology, orthopedics, otolaryngology, neurosurgery, thoracic surgery, general surgery, and colorectal surgery. To create demand projections, they analyzed demographics, health utilization patterns, and physician-to-population ratios.
Study Results
Researchers found that overall, surgeon supply is projected to decline 4.2% from 2023 to 2038, while demand for surgeons will increase by 12.8%. Researchers anticipate this will result in a shortfall of 27,940 surgeons nationally. Across the U.S., the workforce is projected to meet 84.3% of need. Four specialties face critical shortages: vascular surgery (65.8% of need met), ophthalmology (71.8%), thoracic surgery (73.1%), and plastic surgery (74.1%).
Four more specialties face moderate shortages: urology (84.4%), otolaryngology (87.5%), orthopedics (87.9%), and neurosurgery (88.7%). General surgery (91.3%) and colorectal surgery (98.3%) are projected to stay near equilibrium.
These gaps between surgeon supply and demand are also projected to be worse in rural areas.
The study began close to home. Eliana Ferreira Ribeiro Duraes, MD, PhD, MBA, a plastic surgeon at the Cleveland Clinic, and Fernando Ribeiro Duraes’ mother, started the work by looking at shortages in her own specialty. “I saw [Fernando Ribeiro Duraes] and his colleagues trying to figure out what specialty they wanted,” she said, which prompted a study into wider projections so they can “understand the future and what’s expected to be the landscape in different surgical specialties.”
For patients, surgical shortages mean longer waits for procedures. Patients may also need to travel longer distances for medical care, especially for people in rural areas who may have to drive hours to be treated.
The findings, researchers say, point to the urgent need to address future surgeon shortages through targeted workforce policies and geography-focused strategies beyond incremental changes. Fernando Ribeiro Duraes specifically points to the proposed bill H.R. 3890, the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, which would raise the number of residency positions, a figure that has not changed since 1997; undoing recent caps placed on federal loan borrowing; and expanding loan forgiveness programs for public service, which can help “encourage physicians to go to these rural areas,” he said.
Co-authors are Victor F. A. Almeida, MD; John Y. Ha, BA, BS; Emanuella M. Brito, BS; Manoela Dantas, MD; Leonardo De Castro Duraes, MD, PhD; Risal S. Djohan, MD; and Eliana Ferreira Ribeiro Duraes, MD, PhD, MBA.
Disclosures: Authors have no disclosures to report.
Citation: Ribeiro Duraes F, et al. Projected Surgical Workforce Shortages in the United States: A National Workforce Analysis to 2038 . Scientific Forum, American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026.
Note: Research abstracts presented at the ACS Clinical Congress Scientific Forum are reviewed and selected by a program committee but are not yet peer reviewed.
# # #
About the American College of Surgeons
The American College of Surgeons is a scientific and educational organization of surgeons that was founded in 1913 to raise the standards of surgical practice and improve the quality of care for all surgical patients. The College is dedicated to the ethical and competent practice of surgery. Its achievements have significantly influenced the course of scientific surgery in America and have established it as an important advocate for all surgical patients. The College has approximately 95,000 members and is the largest organization of surgeons in the world. "FACS" designates that a surgeon is a Fellow of the American College of Surgeons.
Follow the ACS on social media: X | Instagram | YouTube | LinkedIn | Facebook