As the planet warms, the severity and frequency of hurricanes is increasing—and with it, economic losses from storm surge–related flooding. A new paper , published earlier this month in the journal Natural Hazards Review , assesses the impacts of rising seas and wetland change on storm surge flooding in a region expected to be a “hot spot” for sea level rise—the Chesapeake Bay.
The study results suggest that, particularly for strong storms in the future, the combination of wetland loss and sea level rise spurs significantly more property damage and affects more people than sea level rise alone.
“In low-elevation communities, even a small change in sea level can have a big impact,” said Margaret Walls, study coauthor and senior fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF). “Wetlands provide an important buffer to storm surge. In combination, wetland loss and sea level rise can create, almost literally, conditions for a perfect storm. This has serious repercussions for insurance markets, developers, and people living in this highly populated region.”
To quantify damages, the study authors model two historic hurricanes that hit the Chesapeake Bay region at the turn of the century: a relatively weak storm—Hurricane Dennis, in 1999—and a relatively strong storm—Hurricane Isabel, in 2003. By running computer simulations of these storms, in combination with coastal land use change tools from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the team could model the combined and isolated impacts of sea level rise and wetland loss on coastal flooding in 2100.
They came to the following conclusions:
Notably, the modeling also shows that Virginia is likely to lose more wetlands than Maryland. However, Anne Arundel County, Maryland—which is located between Washington, DC, and Baltimore—has the highest number of people at risk from coastal flooding.
“The results show that coastal communities should be braced for a future marked by climate change and sea level rise,” Walls said. “Hopefully, our research will support efforts to develop adaptation measures that include conservation, restoration, and floodplain management measures. Natural infrastructure can go a long way to protect us in an uncertain future.”
For more, read the article, “ Quantifying the Impacts of Storm Surge, Sea Level Rise, and Potential Reduction and Changes in Wetlands in Coastal Areas of the Chesapeake Bay Region ,” in the journal Natural Hazards Review . The paper was authored by Ali Mohammed Rezaire from George Mason University, Celso M. Ferreira from George Mason University, Margaret Walls from Resources for the Future, and Ziyan Chu from First Street Foundation.
Natural Hazards Review
10.1061/(ASCE) NH.1527-6996.0000505
Computational simulation/modeling
Not applicable
Quantifying the Impacts of Storm Surge, Sea Level Rise, and Potential Reduction and Changes in Wetlands in Coastal Areas of the Chesapeake Bay Region
9-Aug-2021