Key take-aways
Ljubljana, Slovenia – 24 April 2026 : A preliminary model to improve the prediction of cardiovascular risk in Latin America and the Caribbean was presented today at ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026 , 1 the annual congress of the European Association of Preventive Cardiology (EAPC), a branch of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used to identify people who benefit most from preventive action. These models integrate information on risk factors such as age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure and cholesterol levels to provide an estimate of an individual’s risk of developing CVD. Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) is the risk prediction model implemented in ESC Guidelines. 2, 3 SCORE2 estimates the 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction and stroke) among apparently healthy adults aged 40–69 years without previous CVD or diabetes.
Cardiovascular risk is not uniform across the globe, and the ESC is committed to closing gaps in CVD prevention and care worldwide. The burden of CVD remains high in Latin America and the Caribbean 4 and yet accurate region-specific risk prediction models are lacking. “Models such as SCORE2 were developed using data from European populations,” said senior investigator, Professor Frank Visseren from the University Medical Center Utrecht, Netherlands. “These models can be useful in other regions but first they must be recalibrated and validated using extensive, high-quality local data to capture important differences in risk factor distributions and CVD incidence patterns. Through the ESC’s Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration, we are working in close partnership with the Inter-American Society of Cardiology (SIAC) to develop SCORE2-LAC, a new model that reflects the diversity and realities of cardiovascular risk across Latin America and the Caribbean.”
SCORE2-LAC applies the same methodological framework used previously for the recalibration of SCORE2 for the Asia-Pacific region, 5 while relying on region-specific data from Latin America and the Caribbean.
Doctor Stella Bijkerk from the University Medical Center Utrecht, Netherlands, presented initial details on the development of SCORE2-LAC at ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026. She noted, “Average risk factor levels and mortality data from 32 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have been incorporated and we have begun the process of estimating 10-year CVD incidence based on data from 2.6 million individuals. Over the coming weeks, we will incorporate data from an additional 37 million people from Brazil. External validation is then expected to involve cohorts from at least 8 countries.”
On behalf of SIAC, senior investigator Professor Carlos Ignacio Ponte Negretti from La Floresta Clinic, Caracas, Venezuela, said, “This project represents a historic milestone for CVD prevention in our region. For the first time, Latin America and the Caribbean will have a rigorously validated tool, built on local epidemiological data, allowing for more precise and reliable cardiovascular risk assessment. The project also opens up valuable opportunities for research so we can better understand cardiovascular risk across the region and implement further improvement strategies.”
The final SCORE2-LAC model is expected to be presented at ESC Congress 2026, which takes place from 28–31 August in Munich, Germany.
ENDS
Notes to Editor
Funding: No specific funding source.
Disclosures: Professor Visseren, Doctor Bijkerk and Professor Ponte Negretti report no conflicts of interest relevant to this project.
References:
1 ‘Preliminary SCORE2 Latin America and the Caribbean: a region-specific tool to improve cardiovascular risk estimation in clinical practice’ presented during the Young Investigator Award - Primary Care & Risk Factor Management session on 24 April at 14:00 to 15:00 on the Open Stage.
2 SCORE 2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration. SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe. Eur Heart J. 2021;42:2439–2454.
3 Visseren FLJ, Mach F, Smulders YM, et al . 2021 ESC guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice. Eur Heart J. 2021;42:3227–3337.
4 GBD 2023 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Lancet. 2025;406:1811–1872.
5 SCORE2 Asia-Pacific writing group. Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific region: the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific model. Eur Heart J. 2025;46:702–715.
ESC Press Office
Tel: +33 6 61 40 18 84
Email: press@escardio.org
Follow European Society of Cardiology News on LinkedIn
About the European Society of Cardiology
The ESC brings together healthcare professionals from more than 150 countries, working to advance cardiovascular medicine and help people to live longer, healthier lives.
About SIAC (Inter-American Society of Cardiology)
SIAC brings together 28 cardiology societies from countries across the Americas, with a mission to promote the progress of the specialty and encourage interdisciplinary and intersectoral collaboration for the improved cardiovascular health of communities in the region.
About the European Association of Preventive Cardiology
The European Association of Preventive Cardiology (EAPC) is a branch of the ESC. Its mission is to promote excellence in research, practice, education and policy in cardiovascular health, primary and secondary prevention.
About ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026
ESC Preventive Cardiology takes place from 23–25 April at Cankarjev dom - Cultural and Congress Centre, Ljubljana, Slovenia. Explore the scientific programme .