Wealth redistribution policies currently under discussion in international fora could avert between 6.6 and 29.5 million deaths by 2030 , according to a study, published in The Lancet , led by ISGlobal in collaboration with other leading economic and health research institutions. The findings suggest that a range of international tax measures could generate substantial resources for development and health programmes at a time when many donor countries are reducing official development assistance (ODA).
The study analysed data from 59 low-income and lower-middle-income countries between 2002 and 2021 and projected future scenarios through 2030. Researchers first estimated the relationship between ODA funding and mortality. They then used these estimates to model the potential health impacts of different wealth redistribution policies designed to offset the decline in ODA funding.
A baseline scenario of declining aid
The analysis found that higher levels of development assistance were associated with a 24% reduction in overall mortality and a 33% reduction in mortality among children under five.
The researchers then modelled a scenario in which current reductions in development assistance continue through 2030. Under this scenario, they projected approximately 7.6 million additional deaths, including 1.4 million among children under five. This defunding scenario served as the baseline against which different wealth redistribution policies were evaluated.
Alternative financing mechanisms
The researchers assessed ten policies that have been proposed in recent high-level international agreements and policy discussions. These included taxes on ultra-high-net-worth individuals (billionaires) , multinational corporations, financial transactions, carbon emissions, cryptocurrencies , and interest earned on sovereign debt .
Each redistribution scenario was modelled on top of the projected aid reduction scenario, allowing the researchers to estimate the extent to which additional revenues could offset the health impacts of declining assistance.
Across all scenarios, the policies generated sufficient resources to offset part—or, in most cases, all—of the projected negative health impacts associated with current aid reductions. Depending on the mechanism and level of taxation , these measures were estimated to prevent between 6.6 million and 29.5 million deaths by 2030 .
Among the policies analysed, a 3% tax on the wealth of billionaires was associated with up to 29.5 million deaths averted by 2030. A global minimum tax on large multinational corporations was associated with approximately 20 million deaths averted, while taxes on financial transactions were associated with around 24 million deaths averted.
“We first estimated how the current reduction in humanitarian and development assistance could lead to millions of avoidable deaths in the world’s most vulnerable countries,” says Gonzalo Barreix , researcher at ISGlobal and first author of the study.
“With donor countries facing growing indebtedness and increasingly reallocating resources towards military spending, funding humanitarian assistance via the taxation of large fortunes was one of the most viable strategies ” says Lucio Exposito , senior economist of the study and researcher at the ICESI School of Economics and University of East Anglia School of Global Development.
“Our models showed that maintaining, or even increasing, humanitarian and development assistance could save millions of lives over the coming years ,” says Rodrigo Anderle , researcher at the Institute for Collective Health in Brazil and one of the modellers of the study.
Policies already under discussion
The study comes at a time when development assistance from several major donor countries has undergone abrupt cuts . At the same time, international discussions on financing for development have increasingly focused on alternative mechanisms to mobilise resources.
Recent initiatives, including commitments discussed by the G20, the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development held in Seville in 2025, and the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on international taxation, have renewed interest in wealth taxes, minimum corporate taxation and other redistribution measures.
The authors stress that the aim of their study is not to advocate for a specific policy, but rather to estimate the potential health impact of a range of financing mechanisms that are already part of international policy discussions.
“We live in an extremely unequal world, where a small number of individuals and corporations are accumulating wealth at an unprecedented pace and scale, while millions of vulnerable people continue to die for lack of access to basic, often low-cost, humanitarian interventions,” says Davide Rasella , ICREA Professor at ISGlobal, who conceived and coordinated the study. “Our findings show that implementing even modest wealth redistribution policies, such as those proposed in recent international agreements, could literally save tens of millions of lives in the coming years .”
The Lancet
Data/statistical analysis
People
Wealth Redistribution Policies to Mitigate the Impact of Development Assistance Defunding
7-Sep-2026