A study estimates the impacts of climate change on future air pollution-induced mortality in China. Every year, more than 1 million people die prematurely in China because of air pollution. Climate change may exacerbate the health impacts by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, but the relationship between extreme events and air quality is not well understood. Qiang Zhang, Hans Schellnhuber, and colleagues estimated climate contributions to future air quality and associated mortality in China using climate, air quality, and epidemiological models. The models predicted that climate change would worsen air pollution over more than half of China's land area, encompassing more than 85% of the current population, by the mid-21st century, compared with the years 2006-2010. Population-weighted average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations increased by 3% and 4%, respectively, leading to approximately 12,000 additional deaths per year due to PM2.5 and 9,000 additional deaths per year due to ozone. Nearly 40% of the increased mortality could be attributed to an increase in atmospheric stagnation events, with an additional 6% attributed to increased heat waves. The results suggest that climate change may exert a significant impact on air quality by increasing extreme weather events, according to the authors.
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Article #18-12881: "Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China," by Chaopeng Hong et al.
MEDIA CONTACT: Qiang Zhang, Tsinghua University, Beijing, CHINA; tel: +86-10-6279-5090; e-mail: qiangzhang@tsinghua.edu.cn ; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, GERMANY; tel: +49-331-288-2501; e-mail: john@pik-potsdam.de
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences