Cristiana Stan, Associate Professor, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Zeng-Zhen Hu of NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Tara Jensen of NCAR/RAL, and Avichal Mehra of NOAA/NCEP/EMC, are working to improve existing ocean oscillation diagnostics and build them into a suite of tools used to forecast the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Beyond that, the researchers aim to diagnose the relationship between ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) benchmark runs and inform the model developers of the strengths and weaknesses of the UFS in simulating physical mechanisms observed as drivers of ENSO in nature. The researchers will integrate the diagnostics into the Model Evaluation Tools plus (METplus).
The researchers have already successfully evaluated the proposed diagnostics and are ready to demonstrate them in the operational environment required by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
This project will deliver to the CPC an El Niño forecast tool operating in an environment parallel to operations. If forecast skill is demonstrated for real-time conditions, the researchers will transition the forecast tool to operations.
The NOAA ENSO diagnosis and prediction team will receive the forecast tool the researchers create. NOAA stakeholders with an interest in El Niño forecasts will also benefit from this work. The MJO-ENSO diagnostic tool will benefit the broad model development community, including the Environmental Modeling Center.
Stan will receive $146,606 from NOAA for this work. Funding will begin in August 2020 and will conclude in late July 2022.
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