A new study reveals that temperature changes in the Indian Ocean can significantly influence winter weather thousands of kilometers away in the Eastern Mediterranean, offering new opportunities to predict damaging dry spells months before they occur. Positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole are linked to large-scale shifts in atmosph...
SourceThe Hebrew University of Jerusalem·JournalAtmospheric Research·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateJul 13, 2026
A study suggests geoengineering methods like marine cloud brightening could reduce the impact of extreme weather events during a super El Niño. By targeting natural variability, geoengineering could provide shorter-term benefits with less sociotechnical risk.
SourceUniversity of California - San Diego·JournalScience Advances·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateJul 8, 2026
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Researchers found that climate variability in the North Atlantic-European region and tropical Indo-Pacific regions interact to intensify Japanese winters. This interaction amplifies jet stream disturbances, resulting in colder and more severe conditions.
SourceUniversity of Tsukuba·JournalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society·DateJun 4, 2026
Recent studies indicate an extension of dry seasons and changes in rainfall patterns in the Amazon, with some predictions surpassing decades' projections. Climate models show intensified water deficits, particularly in southwestern regions under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
SourceFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo·JournalJournal of Climatology·DateMay 28, 2026
Researchers found that a drying climate and lack of management led to intensified bushfires on Kangaroo Island between 5,000 and 2,000 years ago. The study provides context for managing the island's unique flora and fauna.
SourceAdelaide University·JournalGlobal and Planetary Change·DateMay 5, 2026
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Researchers have developed a simple yet effective ocean-based model that can predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months in advance using only surface temperature and height observations. The model leverages two core climate memories, Wyrtki memory and Hasselmann memory, to achieve forecast skill comparable to more complex models.
SourceUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateApr 20, 2026
Scientists discovered that deep-water coral ecosystems in the Galápagos region vanished for over 1,000 years due to prolonged La Niña-like conditions. The study found that these ecosystems may be more susceptible to climate change than previously thought, with significant implications for conservation efforts.
SourceUniversity of Bristol·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateApr 20, 2026
The study found that the 2023-2024 El Niño event triggered record-breaking sea level surges in Africa, with acceleration outpacing the global average. This unprecedented crisis threatens over 15 million coastal residents with flooding, land subsidence, and extreme weather.
SourceUniversity of Cape Town - Faculty of Science·JournalCommunications Earth & Environment·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateMar 24, 2026
Researchers have shown that ocean temperature patterns limit the global spread of droughts, with synchronised droughts affecting only 1.8% to 6.5% of global land. The study identified 'drought hubs' in regions like Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
SourceIndian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar·JournalCommunications Earth & Environment·DateFeb 23, 2026
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Researchers found that certain salinity patterns can fuel El Niño development, increasing its intensity by 20%. This process makes extreme El Niño events more likely and causes catastrophic flooding and severe droughts. The study identified global patterns in salinity preceding major El Niño events over the past 65 years.
SourceDuke University·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·DateFeb 20, 2026
Researchers on M217/1 expedition study upwelling system and extreme events off southwest African coast, focusing on Coastal Kelvin waves and Benguela Niños. Key findings include the seasonal upwelling without wind off Angola and the causes of marine heatwaves that disrupt marine ecosystems.
SourceHelmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)·DateFeb 17, 2026
A new study reveals that strong Central Pacific El Niños self-destruct due to negative feedbacks from distant oceans, while weaker events survive by forming a lasting partnership with the North Pacific climate pattern. This discovery enables forecasting months in advance with over 80% accuracy.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJan 22, 2026
A recent study by the University of Adelaide found that K'gari's largest lakes dried out around 7,500 years ago due to a strong drying event. The researchers also discovered that wind patterns may have influenced rainfall on the island, putting its lakes at risk of drying again in the future.
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Researchers at ISTA and others have discovered a previously unknown cyclic climate pattern, known as TWISO, which influences weather fluctuations and seasonal changes. This finding has implications for predicting tropical storms and saving lives.
SourceInstitute of Science and Technology Austria·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateNov 24, 2025
A new study reveals that ENSO could intensify rapidly over the coming decades and synchronize with other major climate phenomena, leading to stronger rainfall fluctuations in regions such as Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula. The amplified impacts will necessitate enhanced planning and adaptation strategies.
SourceInstitute for Basic Science·JournalNature Communications·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateOct 16, 2025
UCSB scientists found that cloud seeding could disrupt the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a major climate cycle. In contrast, stratospheric aerosol injection had virtually no effect on ENSO. The study highlights the importance of considering broad consequences before implementing geoengineering proposals.
SourceUniversity of California - Santa Barbara·JournalEarth's Future·DateSep 16, 2025
The State of the Climate report reveals record-high greenhouse gas concentrations, with CO2 levels reaching 422.8 parts per million, a 52% increase from pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures also reached a new high, with annual growth increasing to 2.4 ppm yr−1.
SourceAmerican Meteorological Society·JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society·DateAug 14, 2025
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Researchers have discovered that urban areas experience a greater difference in wet bulb globe temperature between 0.5 m and 1.5 m above ground due to surface heat radiation, posing health risks to children and pets during extreme heat events. Total solar eclipses also alter atmospheric conditions and insect behavior, with some species...
A new study reveals that the Pacific Meridional Mode plays a major role in Hawaiian rainfall variability, particularly in spring. The research suggests that El Niño emerges as the primary driver of winter rainfall, but the PMM is crucial for spring rainfall, especially on Maui and the Island of Hawai‘i.
SourceUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa·JournalJournal of Climate·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateMay 9, 2025
The risk of wildfires is increasing due to climate change, leading to overlapping fire weather seasons in the two regions. The number of simultaneous fire weather days has been increasing by one day per year for the past 40 years, with projections suggesting an increase of up to 29 days per year by mid-century.
SourceHelmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ·JournalEarth's Future·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateApr 28, 2025
A new study has uncovered important connections between Westerly Wind Bursts and sea surface temperature anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific. The research found that Westerly Wind Bursts are more frequent during spring developing noncyclic El Niño events, coinciding with localized warming of sea surface temperatures.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateMar 27, 2025
A Dartmouth study has quantified the global economic fallout of El Niño, finding it costs the economy $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in the half-decade after each event. The study's findings are included in the 10 New Insights in Climate Science report ahead of COP29.
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Researchers found that the El Niño oscillation persisted at least 250 million years ago, with more intense temperature swings. The study suggests that atmospheric noise from ocean surface winds plays a key role in the oscillation's magnitude.
SourceDuke University·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateOct 21, 2024
Researchers have confirmed that El Niño causes a drastic reduction in the snow-covered area of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Peruvian Andes. The study used NASA Landsat satellites to measure the ice cap's sensitivity to climate shifts, finding that it lost about 58% of its snow cover between 1985 and 2022.
SourceOhio State University·JournalThe Cryosphere·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateOct 8, 2024
A new study reveals that extreme El Niño events are responsible for the increased sensitivity of CO₂ in the atmosphere to tropical temperatures. This finding challenges previous assumptions about climate change and highlights the importance of understanding internal climate variability.
SourceUniversität Leipzig·JournalAdvances·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateSep 30, 2024
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A new study published in Nature suggests that Earth's last ice age may provide crucial insights into future El Niño weather events. Researchers used ancient shells of marine organisms and advanced climate modeling to shed light on how El Niño patterns might change in a warming world.
SourceUniversity of Arizona·JournalNature·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateSep 25, 2024
A new study predicts that one in two El Niño events could be extreme by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. The research suggests that a feedback loop known as the Bjerknes feedback is strengthened due to rapid atmospheric warming, leading to more frequent extreme weather events.
SourceUniversity of Colorado at Boulder·JournalNature·DateSep 25, 2024
Research explores changes in global precipitation patterns and how they relate to climate change. Bird nests are found to predict rainfall in rural India, while heat stress is increasing in the southeastern US, particularly at night. European 'bomb' storms may intensify due to warming climate.
SourceAmerican Meteorological Society·JournalWeather Climate and Society·DateSep 10, 2024
Research on wind farms reveals their potential to slow tropical cyclone winds and reduce precipitation. Additionally, a study found that people experiencing homelessness are four times more likely to suffer temperature-related illnesses, such as heat stroke, than the general population.
SourceAmerican Meteorological Society·JournalWeather Climate and Society·DateJul 31, 2024
Researchers from Kyushu University found that early-onset El Niño leads to warm winters in East Asia due to anomalous warming of the tropical Indian Ocean. Late-onset El Niño, on the other hand, results in colder winters. This study aimed to improve climate modeling and prediction during El Niño events.
SourceKyushu University·JournalJournal of Climate·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateJul 3, 2024
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Researchers study droughts, wildfires, and precipitation changes across the US Southeast and globally. The Great Salt Lake's drying exacerbates regional droughts, while a Maui wildfire is linked to atmospheric patterns.
SourceAmerican Meteorological Society·JournalJournal of Climate·DateJul 2, 2024
A new conceptual model, XRO, significantly improves predictive skill of ENSO events at over one year in advance, offering a transparent view into the mechanisms of equatorial Pacific recharge-discharge physics. This improves conventional climate model forecasting and provides robust quantification of extratropical Pacific, tropical Ind...
SourceUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa·JournalNature·TypeMeta-analysis·DateJun 26, 2024
Human-induced global warming has risen to 1.19 °C over the past decade, with the remaining carbon budget estimated to be around 200 gigatonnes, down from 300-900 gigatonnes in 2020. The report highlights the need for rapid emission reductions and resilient societies to mitigate climate change.
SourceUniversity of Leeds·JournalEarth System Science Data·DateJun 4, 2024
Arctic sea ice is expected to lose mass in the coming decade due to dominant natural climate patterns. Exposure to extreme temperatures, particularly heat, may lead to adverse birth outcomes in China. Researchers also found that ocean warming intensifies typhoons, but moderation comes from atmospheric temperature and humidity changes.
SourceAmerican Meteorological Society·JournalJournal of Climate·DateMay 31, 2024
Researchers from the University of Cambridge and Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz found that 2023 was the hottest summer in the Northern Hemisphere in over two millennia, with temperatures 2.07C warmer than the coldest summer on record. The study uses tree ring data to show that global warming is having a profound impact, especially...
SourceUniversity of Cambridge·JournalNature·DateMay 14, 2024
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A new study establishes official climate divisions in Hawaii, improving climate research and forecasting. Chronic pain sufferers who spend time outdoors experience stronger weather-based effects, while lightning-initiated wildfires are responsible for more than half the acres burned in the contiguous United States.
SourceAmerican Meteorological Society·JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society·DateApr 26, 2024
Climate scientists predict a 7 in 10 chance of record-breaking temperatures and humidity in the tropics, threatening humanitarian aid and medical care. El Niño's impact on tropical heat and humidity is expected to compound the effects of global warming, leading to extreme humid heat stress.
SourceUniversity of California - Berkeley·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateApr 19, 2024
Researchers from Kyushu University found that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances teleconnection patterns, leading to more meandering jet streams and extreme weather events. The study highlights the significance of extratropical ocean-atmosphere interactions in climate variability.
SourceKyushu University·JournalCommunications Earth & Environment·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateMar 28, 2024
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The 2023-24 El Niño phenomenon is likely to cause record-breaking average surface air temperatures in some areas, including the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines. Global mean surface temperatures are predicted to break historical records with a 90% chance under a moderate or strong El Niño scenario.
SourceScientific Reports·JournalScientific Reports·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateFeb 29, 2024
Research suggests polar climates are adjusting to a warming climate with changes in regional climate dynamics. Altered ocean-sea ice interactions may be driving recent fluctuations in sea ice extent, according to new studies.
SourceAmerican Meteorological Society·JournalJournal of Climate·DateFeb 27, 2024
Researchers from the University of Plymouth discovered coral reef bleaching at depths previously thought to be resilient, highlighting the vulnerability of mesophotic coral ecosystems to thermal stress. The study suggests that climate change is causing a deepening of the thermocline, leading to increased bleaching in the deeper ocean.
SourceUniversity of Plymouth·JournalNature Communications·TypeObservational study·DateOct 19, 2023
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A study by the University of Leeds found that South American forests lost their ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere during an extreme El Niño event in 2015-2016. This suggests that tropical forests may no longer be able to mitigate climate change, but conservation efforts can still protect them.
SourceUniversity of Leeds·JournalNature Climate Change·TypeSurvey·DateSep 4, 2023
A new study reveals that the Pacific Walker Circulation has changed its behavior over the industrial era, with volcanic eruptions causing temporary weakening of the circulation. This could lead to more frequent multi-year La Niña or El Niño events, exacerbating climate-related risks.
SourceUniversity of California - Santa Barbara·JournalNature·DateAug 23, 2023
A new study found that the Pacific Ocean's western boundary current significantly strengthened due to global warming, contributing to intensified equatorial undercurrents and increased sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. This change has been linked to enhanced El Niño events.
SourceBoston College·JournalNature Geoscience·TypeExperimental study·DateAug 7, 2023
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The study found that environmental conditions and the state of the ocean can lead to enhanced risk for ocean temperature extremes. Upwelling patterns on a short-term basis also initiate some of these marine heatwaves and cold spells.
SourceCalifornia Polytechnic State University·JournalScientific Reports·DateAug 2, 2023
A recent study suggests that El Niño's impact on precipitation in West Antarctica is not significant, contradicting its effect through the Amundsen Sea low pressure system. However, different types of El Niño events have opposing impacts on the Antarctic Peninsula and surrounding seas.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJul 25, 2023
Researchers developed an AI model powered by deep learning algorithms that outperforms traditional dynamic models in predicting central Pacific El Nino events. The study sheds light on the potential of AI to enhance seasonal forecasts, offering significant advancements in climate prediction.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJul 24, 2023
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Research predicts increased frequency and intensity of extreme El Niño events due to high atmospheric carbon dioxide, even after CO2 reduction. Simulations suggest potential climate regime shifts in affected regions, with some areas experiencing desertification while others face increased flooding.
SourcePohang University of Science & Technology (POSTECH)·JournalScience Advances·DateJul 20, 2023
A recent study analyzed sediment cores from a Philippine lake, revealing a 200-year period of drought in the western Pacific during the Little Ice Age. The researchers attribute this change to zonal gradients in sea surface temperature, which highlights the importance of understanding past climate dynamics for predicting future climate...
SourceGFZ GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Helmholtz Centre·JournalCommunications Earth & Environment·TypeExperimental study·DateJul 3, 2023
A significant correlation dominates the ENSO–NCCV relationship, suggesting that El Niño restrains the intensity of NCCV and La Niña contributes to its strengthening. The Indian Ocean basin mode is an essential intermediate factor in this modulation mechanism.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJun 21, 2023
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Researchers have identified a phenomenon that could help coral reef managers plan and act for the future. Ocean processes during El Niño strengthened the North Equatorial Counter Current, driving cooler plankton-rich waters to Palmyra's coral reefs and enabling them to better manage heat stress.
SourceKing Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)·JournalScience Advances·DateJun 14, 2023
A recent study by Dartmouth researchers finds that global economic losses from El Niño can persist for several years after the event, with a significant impact on the world's poorest nations. The study projects total losses of $84 trillion for the 21st century, highlighting the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.
SourceDartmouth College·JournalScience·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateMay 18, 2023
A team of researchers predicts a strong El Niño event in late 2023, driven by the buildup of warm water in the western Pacific. The study suggests that an even stronger event could occur if westerly wind bursts occur during the spring and early summer.
SourceOcean-Land-Atmosphere Research (OLAR)·JournalOcean-Land-Atmosphere Research·TypeCase study·DateMay 1, 2023
A recent study found that faster El Niño decays are associated with lower typhoon frequencies in the following summer. Researchers discovered a stronger anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific, driven by tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, as a key mechanism behind this phenomenon.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateFeb 15, 2023
Scientists analyze past El Niño events to better understand climate patterns over the past 12,000 years. They found that Eastern Pacific events have increased in frequency, while Central Pacific and Coastal events have decreased, resulting in changes in hydroclimate in the tropical Pacific.
SourceUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa·JournalNature Communications·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateDec 8, 2022
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A long-term study in Southeast Asian seasonally dry tropical forests found that El Niño-induced drought increased seedling mortality. Despite being more drought-tolerant than rainforests, SDTFs experienced higher mortality rates under severe and prolonged drought conditions.
SourceOsaka Metropolitan University·JournalGlobal Change Biology·TypeSurvey·DateOct 28, 2022
A new study suggests that climate change is favoring La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The researchers found that temperature patterns at the ocean's surface have changed, with the Pacific off South America cooling and the western Pacific warming more than elsewhere. This has led to a strengthened temperature difference between the ...
SourceUniversity of Washington·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·TypeObservational study·DateOct 3, 2022
A 12,000-year analysis of El Niño's impact on animal communities reveals a tipping point where five or more major events per century lead to dramatic changes in eastern Pacific ecosystems. This finding suggests that strong El Niño events will play an increasingly important role in shaping future ecosystems.
SourceUniversity of Utah·JournalScience·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateSep 8, 2022
Physicists at Ural Federal University developed a mathematical model to predict El Niño's behavior, accounting for wind, humidity, temperature, and ocean currents. They found that stronger winds can cause unpredictable weather phenomena.
SourceUral Federal University·JournalPhysica D Nonlinear Phenomena·DateAug 23, 2022
The study highlights a significant difference in warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the 1997/98 and 2015/16 extreme El Niño seasons. During the 2015/16 event, SST anomalies were modest compared to the 1997/98 event, which saw twice the magnitude of anomalies.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateMay 9, 2022
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